India this year met an all-time high peak power demand of 240 GW (2,39,978 MW) recorded on September 1 and as per government projections, this peak is unlikely to be breached any further in 2023.
“We have seen the peak power demand for this year and it will not climb up to the level of 240 GW again for the remaining part of the year. The current demand is hovering around 190-200 GW which is manageable,” said a senior official in the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), who did not want to be named.
The spike in power demand in August and September is because the weather has been unusually dry. India had its most parched August in 122 years, with rainfall plummeting to 33 percent below the seasonal average, according to the country’s met office.
Although the demand is unlikely to peak at the 240 GW-level, the challenge is far from over for India as electricity generation from renewable energy sources typically declines between September and November due to seasonal changes and weather conditions. Renewable sources such as solar, wind and biomass comprise only about 12 percent of the energy mix, and almost all of it is available only during the day time.
Historically, wind power generation is higher during the June-September period. But against an installed capacity of 43.9 GW, variable wind power output was down to 2-3 GW this time, as against a daily average of 6 GW in the past two years, according to data from the Power Ministry.
Hydropower generation dropped to less than 40 GW this year from 45 GW last year due to a below-normal monsoon. This resulted in depleted reservoir levels, especially in the southern region, leading to sub-optimal hydro generation.
A high nighttime (non-solar hours) power demand coupled with seasonal factors results in heavy reliance on coal-fired power plants during this time. Also, during the monsoons coal supply slows down due to rains hindering coal evacuation processes.
Coal stocks at lowest for FY 24
Though not an alarming or emergency-like situation, coal stocks at domestic coal-based power plants have depleted to the levels of 24 million tonnes (MT) for the first time in the current financial year (FY24).
As tracked by Moneycontrol, coal stocks at thermal power plants (TPPs) were at a comfortable 33-35 MT level throughout the peak summer months from April to July and even in August. Coal stocks of 33-35 MT are sufficient to fuel power stations for at least two weeks (or up to 16 days).
However, latest Power Ministry data shows that coal stocks at TPPs are currently at 24 MT, which is enough to fuel power plants for about a week (or up to 10 days). Of the 165 domestic coal-based thermal power plants in the country, 39 had critical stocks as on September 18. Data for any date post September 18 was not available at the time of publishing this story.
On September 1, when the demand hit a record high of 240 GW, coal stocks at domestic thermal power plants were at 27.59 MT. The peak demand shortage or the power demand that could not be met on that day was as high as 10,745 MW (10.74 GW).
Imported coal blending, gas-based power and full thermal operations
When asked how the government is managing with the below normal output from renewable energy sources such as wind and even hydropower, a senior official from the Ministry of Power said the situation is being kept under control by blending of imported coal, mandatory operation of certain government-run gas-based power plants and running coal-fired plants to their full capacity by pushing maintenance by a few months.
As India continues to record an equally high night-time power demand and power shortages during the non-solar hours, the government is trying mitigate the problem of coal shortage, as the fossil-fuel turns out to be the most reliable power source for the country in the absence of energy storage systems for round-the-clock renewable power.
Coal-fired plants contribute to about 70 percent of India’s total energy mix.
The Ministry of Power on September 1 extended the mandate to generating companies (gencos) for blending imported coal in thermal power plants till March 2024 instead of September 2023. While extending the rule, the government also revised the blending percentage of imported coal to 4 percent from the current 6 percent.
“We have also asked states to increase the usage of gas-based power from plants with which it has purchase agreements during high-demand and non-solar hours. Many stations were not operating at full capacity, due to which 12 GW-14 GW was not available. So, we have asked states to defer planned maintenance of power plants to low-demand periods. Besides, all gencos have been reminded to import coal in the manner specified by the ministry,” said a senior power ministry official.
The situation has been manageable so far and any major crisis is unlikely in the coming months, the official added.
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