India braces for heatwave return amidst Cyclone Mocha's influence and El Niño concerns

Cyclone Mocha's presence in the Bay of Bengal is thought to be contributing to the outbreak of extreme heatwave conditions. (Representative Image)

While much of India saw unseasonal showers and below-average temperatures in early May, peak summer weather is now likely to return, beginning in the country's east, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Given the heatwave projections, the IMD has issued an orange alert for Gangetic West Bengal and a yellow alert for isolated regions of Bihar till May 11.

The IMD proclaimed a heatwave in the plains, when local temperatures were predicted to exceed 40°C while rising 5°C to 6°C over the region's average temperatures.

Contributing factors

Cyclone Mocha's presence in the Bay of Bengal is thought to be contributing to the outbreak of extreme heatwave conditions. The approaching Cyclonic Storm is allegedly draining the Indian mainland of precipitation, causing warm and dry northwesterly winds to sweep through West Bengal and the rest of East India.

Also Read | All about Cyclone Mocha

The depression in the southeast Bay of Bengal has drifted north-westward, intensifying into a Deep Depression. It is expected to progressively build into a severe cyclonic storm by May 11 morning, and a very severe cyclonic storm by May 11 midnight across the southeast and adjacent central Bay of Bengal.

Following that, it is expected to gradually recurve, travel north-eastwards, and weaken somewhat beginning May 13, 2023, before hitting southeast Bangladesh and north Myanmar shores around the forenoon of May 14, 2023, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 110-120 kmph gusting to 130 kmph.

Also Read | Do's and Don'ts in heatwave

Advisories issued

Because sea conditions in the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal are expected to be severe or extremely rough until May 14, the advisory for fishermen, small ships, boats, trawlers, and tourism regulations, as well as other shipping activities has been extended until that date.

El Niño, or warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is said to have an impact on monsoon rains in India. "There is a 60% chance of an El Niño developing during May-July 2023. This will increase to about 70% in June-August and 80% between July and September," according to a new update by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

El Niño years are known for their heightened temperatures, accompanied by heatwaves, droughts, and varying rainfall in different parts of the world. As India experiences unusual weather phenomena, the presence of El Niño offers valuable insight into the factors contributing to these conditions.