EC trends show NDA ahead in Muslim-dominated seats, 15 pc gains from 2020 level

Bihar has approximately 32 Assembly constituencies, concentrated across Seemanchal and Koshi, that are considered Muslim-dominated.

As the counting of votes for the Bihar Assembly elections began on Friday, the latest trends by the Election Commission showed that the NDA had made significant gains in Muslim-dominated seats across the state.

A Moneycontrol analysis showed that the NDA was leading in 71.9% of the Muslim-dominated seats as compared to 56.3% in the 2020 assembly election.

As per the Election Commission, the NDA was leading in these key Muslim-dominated seats:

•JD(U)’s Shagufta Azim is leading in Araria

•BJP’s Sanjay Saraogi leading in Darbhanga

•JD(U)’s Zama Khan leading in Chainpur

•Vijay Kimar Khemka leading in Purnia

•Sunil Kumar Pintu leading in Sitamarhi

In the second phase, 32 Muslim-majority constituencies, concentrated across Seemanchal and Koshi, recorded an average turnout of 74.5 per cent, up sharply from 60.2 percent in 2020—an increase of 12.9 percentage points.

According to the 2011 Census, Kishanganj has the highest Muslim concentration in Bihar, with 68% of the population. They will elect four members to the Bihar assembly.

Katihar comes second on the list with a 62% Muslim population. These will elect seven members.

Araria has 41% Muslims who will elect six MLAs. Purnea has a 37% Muslim population and seven constituencies. Darbhanga has 10 assembly seats, and 23% of its population is made up of Muslims. East Champaran and Sitamarhi have 22% and 21% Muslim populations with 12 and seven seats, respectively.

Historically  Muslims have supported secular alliances.  However, according to the latest trends, the RJD is losing at least seven Muslim-dominated seats it had won in the 2020 assembly elections. Meanwhile,  the Congress is trailing in four such seats it previously held. In 2020, the RJD had won 18 of these seats, and Congress had secured six.

The 2022 Bihar survey showed Muslims make up 17.7% of population and nearly 80% Muslim votes went to MGB in 2015 and 77% in 2020.