Breather for Nitish Kumar? What turnout numbers suggest in seats where JD(U) won by thin margins

Of the 78 seats where the victory margin was less than 5 percent in 2020, 43 voted in the first phase.

The record voter turnout in the first of the two-phase Bihar Assembly elections on Thursday has imposed a fresh layer of unpredictability in what many see as a close contest between the Nitish Kumar-led NDA and the Mahagathbandhan comprising the RJD and Congress, among others.

While the NDA claims the record figures prove people’s trust in the Nitish regime, the Mahagathbandhan has branded it as a clear indication of the people’s yearning for change. So has Prashant Kishor, whose Jan Suraaj Party is hoping to make a mark in its debut election in the state.

However, the stakes couldn’t have been higher for Nitish Kumar who is eying a return to power for the fifth consecutive term. Ostracised and ridiculed by Opposition members owing to what they claim is his deteriorating physical and mental health, Nitish faces another challenge in the form of his party’s deteriorating numbers.

A Moneycontrol analysis showed that the JD(U) entered this phase with the largest number of stronghold seats — constituencies it has won in three consecutive elections — with its victory margins steadily shrinking.

Of the 78 seats where the victory margin was less than 5 percent in 2020, 43 voted in the first phase. Within these, 12 seats were decided by less than 1 percent, and nine of those went to the NDA alliance, comprising JD(U), BJP and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).

Data further reveals how crucial a role voter turnout could play in the final outcome on key seats. As per the Moneycontrol analysis, close contests often coincided with weaker turnout.

Munger, for instance, was bagged by the BJP with a 0.75 percent margin. The voter participation recorded in the 2020 polls was five percentage points lower than in 2015.

Which JD(U) seats recorded a thin margin in 2020?

BJP candidate and Bihar Deputy Chief Minister fought from Tarapur this time. The seat saw the JD(U) win by 4.14% in 2020. The constituency recorded a turnout of 66.88%, up from 55.08% recorded in 2020.

Benipur, represented by JD(U's) Vinay Kumar Chaudhary this time, saw the party record a victory margin of 4.03%. Vijay Kumar Choudhary from JD(U) is the sitting JD(U) MLA from the Sarairanjan seat. In 2020, the JD(U) won the seat with a margin of 2.12%. The voter turnout recorded in the first phase here was 62.28% as compared to 56.51% in 2020.

JD(U)’s Madan Sahni has been eyeing a third term from Bahadurpur where the party won by a margin of 1.48% in 2020. The voter turnout here increased from 59.39% in 2020 to 70.28% this time

Aditya Kumar represented the JD(U) from Sakra this time. In 2020, the party won the seat with a margin of 0.92%. The voter turnout recorded in 2020 here was 63.09%. This time, the figure has jumped to 70.28%.

Gunjeshwar Saha from the JD(U) represented the Mahishi seat where the party’s winning margin was 0.93%. The voter turnout here increased to 70.12% from 58.81% in 2020.

Sanjeev Kumar from JD(U) is the sitting MLA from the Parbatta seat which saw a victory margin of  0.51% in the last assembly election. The voter turnout here increased from 60.29% in 2020 to 67.84% this time.

JD(U) candidate Sunil Kumar from Bhorey is trying to retain the party stronghold. In 2020, the JD(U) won by a victory margin of 0.25% here. The turnout recorded here is 62.54%, up from 54.02% in 2020.

In Matihani, Raj Kumar Singh of then LJP had defeated Narendra Kumar Singh alias Bogo of JD(U) by a margin  of 0.16. This time, he is contesting the seat on a JD(U) ticket. The turnout in this seat increased to 69.47% from 61.14% in the last election.

The incumbent MLA, JD(U)’s Sudarshan Kumar, won Barbigha by a narrow margin of 0.09%, defeating the Congress. The turnout this time was 61.44%, up from 53.18% in 2020.

In Hilsa, JD(U)'s Krishnamurari Sharan, popularly known as Prem Mukhiya, defeated RJD's Atri Muni alias Shakti Singh Yadav in 2020 by a narrow margin of 0.01. The turnout here was 61.82% as compared to 54.85% in the last election.