Bihar elections: Nitish Kumar eyes 10th term as chief minister. Can he overcome these challenges?

Nitish first broke ranks with BJP in 2013 and joined hands with RJD and Congress in 2015 to form the Mahagathbandan.

The Election Commission has announced the two-phase polls in Bihar on November 6 and 11, with the counting set to take place on November 14. The focus of every Bihar election for over the last two decades has been on Nitish Kumar, the man who is eyeing a record tenth term as the chief minister.

While he remains central to Bihar’s politics, several challenges now lie ahead for him – from rising anti-incumbency, growing public skepticism over his frequent political U-turns, health concerns and the BJP gaining ground – all of which point that it may not only be about experience anymore.

Here are the key challenges before Nitish Kumar.

Credibility hit due to frequent alliance flips

Even as he has repeated his commitment to BJP-led NDA, Nitish Kumar’s name has become synonymous with political flip-flops. His frequent switches have earned him the title of ‘Paltu Ram’ which has eroded trust among voters.

Nitish first broke ranks with BJP in 2013 and joined hands with RJD and Congress in 2015 to form the Mahagathbandan. He abruptly rejoined the NDA in 2017 following corruption charges against RJD leaders. He again defected in 2022 to return to the Mahagathbandhan, only to resign in January 2024 and realign with the BJP-led coalition, once more staking his political survival on shifting alliances.

This prolonged pattern of political realignments is now catching up with Nitish, posing a growing challenge to his credibility.

Anti-incumbency fatigue and health concerns

Anti-incumbency is a significant hurdle for Nitish Kumar, who has been the CM for two decades. Concerns have also extended beyond political fatigue to include health issues, allegations of corruption as well as worsening law and order in the state.

The BJP is reportedly exploring a “Gujarat model” to counter anti-incumbency.

According to sources cited by The Indian Express, the BJP core group discussed a possible sweeping reshuffle of candidates last week, mirroring the party’s Gujarat strategy before the 2022 Assembly elections.

In Gujarat, the BJP replaced its entire Cabinet and denied tickets to 45 sitting MLAs, including senior ministers, to counter anti-incumbency while pursuing a seventh term. Similarly, in 2019, BJP replaced all sitting MPs in Chhattisgarh ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. Both strategies yielded positive results.

Moreover, Nitish's rivals have often brought attention to the health concerns he has been facing, citing his public demeanour and “unusual gestures” during official events.

Rising BJP influence in state politics

BJP’s expanding influence in Bihar, fueled by strong organisation and PM Modi’s popularity, has positioned it as NDA’s key player ahead of the 2025 elections.

This rise poses a direct challenge to JD(U), which could risk losing its leadership role within the alliance as BJP pushes for equal or greater seat share in the upcoming polls.

The party is already the "big brother" in the Lok Sabha election and is almost equal to JD(U) in the state election. Despite not having a local face in Bihar, the BJP has banked heavily on PM Modi to assume as the dominant force in the state, challenging not just the rivals in Mahagathbandan but its own allies like JD(U).

Succession vacuum in JD(U)

Nitish Kumar currently lacks a clear successor or strong second-tier leadership within the JD(U). With advancing age and growing concerns about his health and occasional unpredictable public appearances, the absence of a succession plan casts doubts on the party’s future and undermines his long-term political appeal.

Law and order concerns

Recent years have seen a perceived resurgence of law and order issues, especially in rural and semi-urban areas, weakening Nitish's once-strong governance (sushasan) narrative.

Recently, in a 24-hour span, three men — including a businessman, a veterinary doctor and a grocery shop owner — were gunned down in separate incidents across the state, with all attacks carried out in broad daylight. Allies like LJP (RV) leader Chirag Paswan have publicly accused the state government of “administrative failure” and claimed law and order has “colla

Since 2015, Bihar has been among the 10 worst states in terms of overall crime cases, according to an Indian Express report. According to State Crime Records Bureau (SCRB) data, cited in the report, the number of crimes in the state rose to 3.54 lakh in Bihar before falling marginally to 3.52 lakh in 2024. Till June 2025, the state saw 1.91 lakh crimes, more than half of what recorded last year.

psed.”

Bihar has ranked second-highest in the country for the number of murders each year since 2015, behind only the much more populous Uttar Pradesh, the report added.