With the ruling DMK having settled the debate on allocation of seats for the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections, the focus has now shifted to the Opposition camp where the AIADMK, now part of the NDA, faces a dilemma over the choice of candidates for the June 19 polls.
Of the six seats due to fall vacant in the state on July 24, the ruling INDIA bloc comprising the DMK (133), Congress (17), VCK (4), CPI (2) and CPM (2) is certain to win 4 seats while the NDA, comprising AIADMK (66), BJP (4) and PMK (5) is poised to win 2 seats.
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While the DMK on Wednesday settled its seat-sharing dilemma with the announcement of candidates, including Kamal Hassan of the MNM, keeping its promise of a Rajya Sabha seat while forming an alliance ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the NDA is yet to announce its candidates.
With 66 MLAs in the 234-strong Tamil Nadu Assembly, the AIADMK is confident of winning one seat on its own (a winning candidate requires 34 votes) but will have to bank on the support of its allies BJP and PMK to win the second.
At stake will be the political fortunes of BJP's former state chief K Annamalai and DMDK chief Premalatha Vijayakanth. The latter, an ally of the AIADMK, has claimed that a promise for a Rajya Sabha seat was made to her party during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami has, however, hinted that no such agreement exists and that the party may choose to field its own candidate on both seats.
That, however, may not leave ally BJP impressed. The party agreed to sacrifice Annamalai in order to accommodate AIADMK in the NDA, asking him to step down as the state unit president, and may press for a Rajya Sabha entry for the firebrand leader who has toiled hard to expand the party's footprint in the state.
This leaves the AIADMK in quite a fix. Annamalai and EPS clearly do not see eye to eye and allowing any room to the BJP to ensure the former's entry into Parliament may not be feasible internally. Annamalai was asked to step down just before the AIADMK and BJP announced a reunion for the Assembly elections scheduled to be held in the state in 2026.
The Indian Express, citing sources, claimed that the BJP is likely to nominate Annamalai to the Rajya Sabha if given a seat by the AIADMK. On the other hand, a senior AIADMK leader told the publication that EPS may not want to see Annamalai get a Rajya Sabha seat even if the AIADMK agrees to give one seat to the BJP.
The RSS, however, sees Annamalai's nomination to the Rajya Sabha as crucial for him to retain his political relevance in the state. "If not this Rajya Sabha seat, what is next for Annamalai? The 2026 Assembly elections? But I believe he won’t contest that either," an RSS functionary told IE, adding that Annamalai’s prospects of being inducted into the BJP-led central government may brighten if he enters the Rajya Sabha.
"Being a central minister or an MP is really significant. But being one of the 234 MLAs in the Assembly? And if he faces one more defeat in the Assembly polls, after having suffered losses in the 2021 Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha polls, it could push Annamalai to the margins of Tamil politics," he said.
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