ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
The US dollar index fell by 0.20% on Wednesday as the US CPI dropped below the expected 5% mark for the first time since June 2021. The drop in the April CPI to 4.9% knocked the Treasury yields lower and raised the bets that Fed would cut the rates in this year. Rupee future maturing on May 29 appreciated by 0.03% on Tuesday on the back of weak dollar • US$INR is likely to face the hurdle near 82.15 and decline towards the 81.80 as the probability of rate cut towards the second half of the year has increased. US$INR could face the resistance of 50 day EMA at 82.15 and slide towards the immediate support at 81.80. A move below 81.80 would weaken further towards 81.60.
Intra-day strategy
| USDINR May futures contract (NSE) | |
| Sell USDINR in the range of 82.10-82.12 | |
| Target:81.90 | 82.25 |
| Support: 81.90/81.80 | Resistance: 82.20/82.3 |
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