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Some experts believe that rising concern over US central bank's independence may be undermining trust in dollar-denominated assets, pushing investors toward gold.
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A weaker rupee rate for exporters would be risky for the central bank, though. It could damage broader sentiment toward the currency, which, in turn, could force the central bank to step up intervention in the foreign exchange market, causing a rapid erosion of India’s reserves.
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The Indian rupee has depreciated around 0.7 percent in August, and on a year-to-date basis, it is weaker by 2.94 percent against the US dollar. August saw fourth month of weakness, which experts have attributed to tariff-related uncertainty.
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The Dollar index eased after the US Fed chair left the door open on future interest rate cuts, while adding that there are risks of both rising unemployment and stubbornly higher inflation.
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The currency is getting support from GST reforms announced by the Prime Minister Modi during his Independence Day address in a push for self-reliance amid uncertainty over India-US trade deal.
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The local currency unit gained 0.31% - its highest intraday gain since July 3 - and closed at 87.4400, compared to Tuesday's close of 87.7125.
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On August 6, Trump signed an executive order for imposing an additional 25 per cent tariff on imports from India.
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Firm intervention by the central bank on Friday helped the rupee find some footing, but traders and analysts expect a depreciation bias in the near term.
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The greenback was also on track for its first monthly gain for the year, bolstered by a hawkish Fed and U.S. economic resilience, with uncertainty over tariffs beginning to ease given recent trade deals struck by Washington.
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The CBDC isn’t a feature. It’s a new logic embedded in money. And when logic changes at the base layer, everything upstream — including value chains — changes with it.
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The local currency, which opened at 85.5837 against the US dollar, fell to 86.0038 against the US dollar during the afternoon trade
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The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six others, slipped to 96.688, its lowest since February 2022
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The latest headlines on Powell add another element of risk to the dollar and US Treasuries, which are both already under pressure from uncertainties around the impact of tariffs and a ballooning fiscal deficit.
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The Reserve Bank of India is likely to intervene if the rupee weakens further toward 87 per dollar, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. and MUFG Bank Ltd. The Indian unit is the worst hit Asian currency this quarter, weighed by surging oil prices.
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Israel has begun carrying out strikes on Iran, two U.S. officials told Reuters, adding that there was no U.S. assistance or involvement in the operation. Another report suggested that explosions were heard northeast of Iran’s capital Tehran.
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The rupee has hovered in the 85.30 to 86.02 range against the U.S. dollar over June so far with its 1-month realised volatility declining to 4.5%, the lowest in about six weeks.
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RBI's unexpected move to release Rs 2.5 trillion starting September may prompt lenders to favor shorter-tenor securities over longer-dated ones
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On June 4, Indian rupee was under pressure due to dollar demand from oil companies, foreign investors, and importers
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The Trump administration has given a Wednesday deadline for countries to submit their best offers on trade, the same day a doubling of duties to 50% on imported steel and aluminium comes into effect.
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The currency opened at 85.5238 against the dollar after ending the previous session at 85.28.
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The Reserve Bank of India had dollar repayments of near record high of $84.3 billion as of March as indicated by its net short forwards position
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Dollar index was trading at 100.228 in early trade, as compared to 99.875 at previous trading session.
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Firms are receiving more requests for transactions including hedges that sidestep the dollar and involve currencies such as the yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, the Emirati dirham and the euro
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Trade deals are being pursued by countries amid tariff uncertainty
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On May 7, rupee depreciated around 20 paise driven by sharp rise in geopolitical tensions
