MRPL’s 4QFY25 EBITDA beat our estimates by 34%, as reported GRM came in ~USD1/bbl above our estimates at USD6.2/bbl. Adjusting for inventory gain, core GRM stood at ~USD5.8/bbl. However, PAT was affected by a higher-thanestimated tax rate. Refining throughput was in line with our estimate at 4.6mmt. Singapore GRM has weakened further in Apr’25TD, averaging USD3/bbl (vs. USD3.2/bbl in 4QFY25). We have a bearish stance on refining over FY26-1HFY28 due to strong ~2.5-3mb/d net refinery capacity additions globally over CY24-26, demand concerns led by rising trade tensions, and possibilities of a global macroeconomic slowdown.
OutlookMRPL currently trades at 6.5x 1yr. fwd. EV/EBITDA and 1.7x 1yr. fwd. P/B. We value the stock at 5x FY27E EBITDA of INR51.6b to arrive at our TP of INR 105. Reiterate Sell.
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