In an interview to CNBC-TV18's Anuj Singhal and Surabhi Upadhyay, SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com shared his views and outlook on the fundamentals of the market and specific stocks.
Below is the verbatim transcript of the interview.
Anuj: Your thoughts on how you would approach both Godrej Consumer Products and Marico?
A: We have a positive view on Godrej Consumer because you need to actually see the price behaviour or maybe the trading pattern in the stock for last couple of weeks. Ahead of the results, based on the excellent Q4 numbers, markets was expecting that probably Q1 numbers will also be very good and the stock has risen by about Rs 125-130.
And if you really see, I do not think that the impact of the result, I agree that the result has not been to the mark, but the effect of the correction which we have seen in the share price today to the extent of about Rs 75-80 is more due to the technical factors, maybe the liquidation of long positions. And sometimes, you get the opportunity to enter into these stocks when they correct so swiftly.
The case in point is LIC Housing where we have initiated the buy call in the morning and seen the stock having moved up from Rs 680 to a level of Rs 695. So similar is the case of Godrej Consumer Products. One cannot time or look for the exact price, but I think that this is the correct price to enter with a view of about maybe couple of months or so where you can see again the stock recovering and I am not so much disappointed with the Q1 numbers.
Coming on Marico, I will not be keeping a positive call on the stock because the stock per se looks expensive and even the Q1 numbers which came about a couple of hours back has not met to the expectation and taking that into consideration, probably I will remain away from Marico.
Anuj: Your thoughts on Chennai Petroleum Corporation at Rs 402 and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals (MRPL) at Rs 124.
A: Looking to the numbers, actually MRPL numbers were a little flattish and if you really take a call with the expected corporate actions of its merger with Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) which seems imminent and taking a valuation call, I think HPCL is ruling at a very low price-earnings ratio (P/E) multiple, maybe a P/E multiple of about 7-8 because in FY17, they had an exceptional item. Because of that, the earnings per share (EPS) was closer to about Rs 20, but one can expect an EPS of closer to about Rs 13-14 for FY18.
And if the merger happens then probably that will go in the favour of the shareholders. So that is the only way, that is the only point which I will be taking a call on MRPL, but from Chennai Petro, I will refrain away. Instead of chasing the momentum, it is better to wait for the buying now in Chennai Petro.
Surabhi: This is a stock that has gained almost 80 percent in the last year. Does it offer more value, the diversified conglomerate that Piramal Enterprises today is?
A: Definitely, the numbers which you see consolidated for the financial segments has come out very well. But you need to see in the context. As you have rightly said, Piramal Enterprises has risen by about 80 percent and in fact, there are still the concentration is more on the financial services. So how far you can stretch the P/E valuations for the stock is really a question mark, because what kind of growth and all that things will be seen going ahead. And the kind of investments which they are making.
Take for instance, the Shriram Transport Finance Corporation, Shriram City Union Finance merger, whether if they need to make any incremental investments because still the clarity is not there in respect to the swap ratio mergers and all that. So whether the additional, marginal investments in both these mergers move can give them that kind of returns which they all along been earning, I do not know. I have my doubts.
So, taking all this into consideration, it seems that Piramal Enterprises has reached to its optimum valuation and maybe it is better to hunt for the other ideas in the non-banking financial space going forward.
Surabhi: Do you have a view on AksharChem (India)?
A: I have been keeping positive view on the company because this is the largest vinyl sulphone exporter from the country and they are in fact carrying out an expansion of about Rs 175-200 crore. Recently, company came out with a qualified institutional placement (QIP) issue also and eventually they will be making a QIP of about Rs 150-175 crore. So a debt free company will continue to remain debt free even after expansion. But after seeing the results of Bhageria Industries on which I am on the board as an independent director, there has been slight pressure on the realisations of vinyl sulphone.
H-Acid prices have bounced back in Q2 in this last one month. Vinyl sulphone continues, but probably AksharChem will be enjoying the advantage of the higher volume going forward because as I said, they are in the largest vinyl sulphone exporter from the country and if you see on the pollution compliance aspects, this is the best plant available with a capacity of quite a high. Maybe they have a 3.5 time capacity of Bhageria Industries.
So taking that into account, even if you have some kind of disappointment which may be seen from Q1 numbers, I will not be too disappointed with this because the kind of swift upmove which we see in the share prices, suddenly it moves from Rs 100 to Rs 150 on any positive news. So my advice is that remain invested with a view of about six months even if the Q1 numbers are a bit disappointing, they will quickly bounce back and get recovered in Q2 going forward.
Anuj: What is your view on Jayant Agro-Organics and Jubilant Life Sciences?
A: Coming first on Jayant Agro, today it has gone ex-bonus and ruling closer to about Rs 550. So effective market price is Rs 1,100 and if you all recall, we have recommended about one year back at a sub-Rs 200 level and it has already seen about giving a gain of about 500 percent.
Now if you see the situation going forward on Jayant Agro, excellent company in castor oil, castor seed space and maybe in this North Gujarat because of the heavy flood in Mehsana, Sabarkantha where castor seeds are grown, some crop has taken damage but crop has recently sowed because we see the harvesting coming in, in the month of April-May when the harvest has happened and the re-sowing of the crop has happened about a month back.
So even if the crop has damaged, that will get re-sowed by the farmers and that is not seen a big negative. Company always procures their entire requirement of the castor seeds for whole of the year and they have adequately covered that. So, it will be seen as quite positive, because going forward, even their end product prices will increase of castor oil, castor oil derivatives.
So extremely positive and even Q1 numbers, because if you see FY17 had a gain of about 160 percent growth in their profit after tax (PAT) and I am expecting that FY18, as given by the management in their commentary will be showing a bottomline growth of closer to about 25-30 percent. So that is the view on Jayant Agro.
Coming on Jubilant Life, maybe till a level of about Rs 780-790, one can remain invested because the numbers of Q1 have neither been bad nor good. But the stock has seen reach to its optimum valuation and is moving in a range of about Rs 710-800 where at the upper end, one can look to exit from the stock.
Anuj: Any stock idea looking at the largecaps, at the way we are seeing some of the largecaps make a move? Nifty about 10,100, any largecap stock that you would want to bet on for the next round of rally?
A: One stock comes to my mind that is Grasim Industries because if you take two investments which the company is holding, Grasim is a holding company now for UltraTech Cement and Aditya Birla Capital. Aditya Birla Capital probably may get listed in the next maybe couple of weeks or maybe maximum one month and I think the listing price is expected to be at around Rs 175. And that will be seen quite positive.
Coming on UltraTech Cement, the company is holding about 60 percent stake in UltraTech Cement and effectively quarter share is held by one share effectively of Grasim. Apart from that, they have their core business of viscose staple fibre because of the very good monsoon. Viscose staple fibre will see very good production at all their key plants that is Nagda, Harihar and Vilayat, the new plants which they have installed near Bharuch.
Coming on their caustic soda plant, again the largest capacity caustic soda is doing quite well because when you see the caustic soda prices having risen, that is also doing quite well. And apart from that, the business which they have got, the legacy business because of the merger of Aditya Birla Nuvo that is Carbon Black insulator and fertiliser, they are also seen to be reasonably okay.
So a conglomerate of the company only black sheep would be I would say holding in Idea Cellular
, even that is not seen such a big negative. So taking an overall valuation call, I think that Grasim Industries is looking a good buy. It is a good index stock and having a good upside potential. If you take the sum of part valuations, I think it is ruling at maybe about 55-60 percent of the net present value of all these investments put together.