Global strategist Amit Goel calls silver a 'classic commodity bubble' unhinged from reality

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Amid extreme volatility in silver prices, market expert Amit Goel has labelled the precious metal's recent rally a "classic commodity bubble" that is completely disconnected from fundamental realities. Speaking with CNBC TV18, Goel, the Co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360, described silver's price action as being "unhinged" from the dollar index, equity markets, and any measure of reality.

Drawing parallels with historic market manias, Goel compared the current situation in silver to the crude oil bubble of 2008, which peaked at $145 per barrel, and the tech bubble of 1999-2000. "This is what a bubble looks like," he stated, highlighting that the market is exaggerating even the slightest positive news, similar to how tech stocks behaved during their speculative peak. He cautioned that while a significant correction has occurred from recent highs, he is not certain that the final top has been established.

Goel pointed out that despite the price surge, silver Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have seen outflows in recent days. "In this entire rise of about let's say $9-10, we haven't seen any silver inflows in the ETF," he noted, suggesting the rally is driven by speculation rather than fundamental investment. While acknowledging the China export restriction deadline as an immediate trigger, he reminded that this news has been in the market for several weeks.

When asked about potential price targets, with some reports suggesting $100 per ounce, Goel was hesitant to put a definitive number on the peak. "Nobody can say with any certainty as to what the top is going to be," he explained. However, he suggested his base case is that silver will surpass its recent top, potentially reaching $90, $92, or even the "magical number of 100" in January. He was firm that volatility is not going away.

From a technical perspective, Goel identified the $70-71 range as a "very solid support" in the near term. He anticipates a potential consolidation in a $70 to $84 range for a couple of weeks before a likely attempt to break out higher.

However, his ultimate warning was stark. Goel is "absolutely sure" that whatever peak silver establishes between now and February 2026, that top will not be broken "in a very, very long time." He projects that once the bubble finally bursts, the price will slice through all support levels and eventually correct by a minimum of 50% to 60% from its peak over the course of a year to a year and a half. He cited the gold-silver ratio's collapse from 108 to 54 and greed indicators being higher than the 1980 peak as clear evidence of a bubble.