 
            
                           ICICI Securities research report on TTK Prestige
We believe the steep competition at bottom-of-pyramid continues to impact TTK Prestige as it reported revenue decline of 6.6% YoY with likely market share decline, in our view. We model recovery from H2FY24 due to (1) improving maturity of Judge brand and likely market share gains at bottom-of-pyramid, (2) likely launch of premium brand to tap consumers at top end and (3) favourable base. The correction in commodity prices will likely provide margin tailwinds and also allow higher investments in brand building efforts and trade investments. We believe TTK Prestige is a good business (high RoCE, FCF generation, established brand and distribution and strong promoter/ management background) passing through a rough phase. We remain constructive. Maintain BUY.
Outlook
We model TTK Prestige to report revenue and PAT CAGR of 7.6% and 14%, respectively over FY23-25. We also model the FCF generation to remain strong. We also model revival H2FY24 onwards due to favourable base and improving maturity of Judge brand. We maintain BUY rating with DCF based target price of INR 900 (implied P/E 33x FY25E). Key risks are steep inflation in commodity prices and competition and failure of new products.
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