Motilal Oswal's report on NTPC
"NTPC reported revenue of INR166b, up 1.9% YoY but lower than our estimate of INR172b. Similarly, EBIDTA stood at INR31b, below estimate of INR37b. Lower revenue and EBIDTA was owing to lower tax recovery, vs our estimate led by tax refunds. Reported PAT includes prior period revenue of INR901m, reversal of excess depreciation of INR2b, net adjustment of tax refund (INR6b) and prior period tax (INR5.6b). Adjusted PAT stood at INR18b, largely in-line with our estimate of INR19b."
"For 2QFY15, generation stood at 55.5BUs up 1.7% YoY led by planned maintenance shutdown during the quarter. 2Q is seasonally weak quarter owing to higher hydro generation and thus, annual overhaul of equipment is taken during the quarter. Generation from coal based projects grew by 1.4% YoY to 52.4BUs. Gas plant generation witnessed robust growth of 7.8% YoY at 3.0BUs. PLF for coal power projects witnessed 270bps decline in 2QFY15, while PAF was lower by ~10ppt. Coal materialization levels stood at 92%."
"We expect NTPC to report net profit of INR82.4b in FY15E (down 17% YoY) and INR101b in FY16E (up 23% YoY). NTPC trades at PER of 12.2x and P/BV of 1.3x (RoE 10.8%) on FY16E basis. Maintain Buy with a target price of Rs 177", says Motilal Oswal research report.
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