Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Muthoot Finance
In Q4 Muthoot Finance (MUTH) reported NIM expansion of ~40bps QoQ to 12.3%, as yields seem to have bottomed out (18.48% vs 18.22% in Q3FY23). PAT at Rs 9.0bn (up .1%QoQ and down 6.0% YoY) came below our estimates of Rs 9.3bn, on account of higher opex and provisions. Asset quality deterioration came as a negative surprise, because Stage-3 assets rose sharply to 3.79% vs 2.58% in Q3FY23 as an accommodation was given to customers for few more months on back of high collateral value. Gold AUM, on the other hand, will continue to see 15% YoY growth in FY24 and FY25, as MUTH managed to post its highest ever quarterly gold disbursement of Rs518.50bn.
Outlook
Given strong gold AUM growth of 8.9% QoQ amidst heavy competition from banks and new age fintech players we maintain our ‘BUY’ rating and TP at Rs 1,315 on (2.2x Sep’24E PABV). Re-rating can happen if company sustains this growth momentum and shows improvement in asset quality.
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