Buy Jindal Stainless; target of Rs 678: Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher is bullish on Jindal Stainless has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 678 in its research report dated May 10, 2025.

Broker Research

May 14, 2025 / 12:31 IST

Buy

26 Aug, 2025 12:21

Volume

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Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Jindal Stainless

Jindal Stainless (JDSL) reported largely in-line standalone operating performance in Q4FY25 led by strong volume growth. Volumes grew 13% YoY to 643kt led by strong 17% YoY domestic volume growth led by infra, metro and railways sector. Exports volume continued to remain weak and contributed ~8% to total volumes however mgmt. is seeing good traction in key quality conscious markets of EU and US in near to medium term. Average realization declined 2% QoQ as domestic pricing came under pressure post US tariff talks amid continued cheap imports from Vietnam & China. Mgmt. indicated SS industry body would file anti-dumping petition in few weeks as imports from Vietnam have shot up significantly in FY25. EBITDA/t was tad better than PLe at Rs13,857 despite series 400 contribution (having least nickel content) coming off in recent quarters. We believe JDSL can grow much faster than guided 9-10% volume growth as mgmt. is seeing traction in exports and domestic demand remains strong. GoI's efforts to promote SS usage along India's large coastline has enhanced market awareness and encouraged material substitution. We expect domestic SS volume growth to remain strong over next few years led by automotive, railway coachs, metro, white goods, and pipes & tubes sectors. Critical sectors, such as process, hydrogen, and nuclear industries hold significant growth potential for the next many years.

Outlook

We tweak our FY26/27E EBITDA estimates by - 2%/+3% incorporating weak SS pricing. We expect revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 15%/16%/27% over FY25-27E. At CMP, the stock is trading at 9.5x/7.7x EV of FY26E/FY27E EBITDA. Maintain ‘Buy’ rating with revised TP of Rs 678 (earlier Rs655) valuing at 9x EV of Mar’27E EBITDA.

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