Gulf Oil (GOLI) has delivered core lubricant YoY growth at >7% over the last 11 quarters, twice that of the industry growth rate. Growth is set to sustain at 2–3x industry growth rates, helped by: 1) continued brand strength and penetration; 2) strong OEM relationships; 3) strong awareness campaigns for customers as well as mechanics and service stations on the ground; and 4) proven product quality. Also, the EV diversification is progressing strongly, with traction being seen in Tirex’s scale and profitability.
OutlookCore margins, however, may encounter near-term headwinds, with an incommensurate dip seen in LOBS prices vs. crude and INR’s sharp depreciation, which will only be gradually passed on. We prune our EPS estimate to factor in margin softness and revise our TP to INR 1,610. Reiterate BUY.
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