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The International Grains Council has scaled down its estimate for global production in 2024-25 by 3 million tonnes to 2,301 million tonnes, compared to its projections in January, according to a grain market report released Thursday. The cut is mainly because of an expected drop in sorghum and maize output amid worsening prospects for South America. The estimate for total grains output is also lower on a yearly basis due to a smaller maize crop. The IGC pegs grain output in 2024-25 8 million tonnes lower than 2,309 million tonnes last year. The council has cut its estimate for maize production to 1,216 million tonnes from 1,219 million tonnes; this is also lower than last year's figure of 1,231 million tonnes. The forecast for global consumption has been lowered modestly to 2,334 million tonnes from 2,335 million tonnes, though this would still be a record high, the council said. Cumulative ending stocks are now estimated at 576 million tonnes, a little higher than in January, but down 5% on year, driven by contraction for major exporters. The estimate for global grains trade has been cut by 1 million tonnes to 419 million tonnes due to lower sorghum and wheat import figures for China. The council sees China's wheat imports in 2024- 25 (Jul-Jun) at 7.7 million tonnes, down from 9.2 million tonnes last year. The country's total wheat supply is now seen at 287.9 million tonnes, lower than the previous estimate of 289.4 million tonnes, it said.
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