Accumulate Mahindra Logistics; target of Rs 386: Prabhudas Lilladher

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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We cut our EPS estimates by 27%/9% for FY26E/FY27E post addition of warehousing space that is likely to escalate rental cost and elevate depreciation and interest charge amid migration to IND AS 116 (refer exhibit one for variation in depreciation & interest expense versus PLe). MAHLOG IN reported a mixed set of results with EBITDA beat of 7.7% led by narrowing losses in B2B express business. We believe B2B express business is showing early signs of revival with volumes increasing by 7.2% combined with yield improvement of Rs0.9 in 2QFY26. Having achieved a 20%+ absorption in white space during 2QFY26, MAHLOG IN intends to lease out the balance unoccupied area by Sep-26.

We expect revenue CAGR of 15% over FY25-FY28E with EBITDA margin expansion of 160bps over the next 3 years. Given healthy growth prospects and strengthening of BS post rights issue, we maintain ACCUMULATE with a TP of Rs386 (23x Sep-27 EPS; no change in target multiple).

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