Accumulate BEML; target of Rs 3561: Prabhudas Lilladher

accumulate

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on BEML

We cut our FY26/27E EPS by -14.6%/-9.9%, factoring in weaker execution and maintaining the rating to ‘Accumulate’. BEML reported revenue decline of 16.4% YoY and 204bps YoY improvement in EBITDA margin on account of lower other expenses. Management has nofitied Rs15.2bn as executable orders in Q4FY25 indicating a significant defferement of execution for FY25. However, revenue from the rail and metro segments is expected to remain subdued this year, as major orders secured in the previous year are still in the early stages of execution. Metro projects have a gestation period of over 2 years until the first prototype is developed, with significant ramp-up anticipated from FY26 onwards. BEML has secured an order worth approximately Rs8.7bn for highspeed trains and order worth ~Rs37bn Chennai Metro rolling stock. However, key tenders, including 100 aluminium push-pull trains valued at around Rs360bn and rolling stock for Mumbai Metro Lines 4, 5, and 6 worth approximately Rs50bn, have been deferred to next year. As a result, the order book is expected to close at Rs170-180bn, falling short of management’s earlier guidance of Rs200-300bn.

Outlook

The stock is currently trading at a P/E of 29.5x/21.1x on FY26/27E earnings. We maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating with a revised TP of Rs3,561 (Rs4,332 earlier), valuing the stock at a P/E of 28x Sep’26E (30x Sep’26E earlier), given delays in execution.

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BEML - 11022025 - prabhu