Putin’s admission of Indian, Chinese concerns may help both manage Western pressure

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s admission that two of his close strategic partners, China and India, have concerns and questions on Ukraine, will provide both countries with elbow room to deal with pressure from the US and other western countries over their stand on Russia.

Putin’s remarks suggest that both countries have been making efforts to bring an early end to the war that has entered its eighth month.

China and India have often been criticised by America and European countries for not condemning Russia and sanctioning it for invading Ukraine.

The Indian stand has been different from the one taken by China.

India has stressed the importance of territorial integrity and sovereignty of nations, as well as respect for UN charters and international laws, and urged the cessation of violence and resumption of dialogue to resolve the dispute.

China has argued that not only Russia but also the West, the US in particular, are to blame for what has happened in Ukraine, as they have constantly ignored Russia’s security concerns.

The stand taken by both countries is seen in the West as pro-Russian.

But Vladimir Putin’s remarks during meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, made it clear that despite their proximity with Russia, both leaders had reservations about the war and were keen to bring an early end to it.

Putin met Xi on September 15, and Modi the next day, on the sidelines of the summit in the Uzbek city of Samarkand.

“We understand your questions and your concerns in this regard and during today’s meeting, we will of course explain in detail our position on the issue, although we have talked about it before,” the Russians said in a note published at the meeting.

Though Putin’s remarks were in obvious response to issues over which China had expressed concern, the Chinese readout did not mention either the Ukraine war or any specific concern Xi had.

Western commentators felt Putin’s remarks were an “acknowledgment of tensions with Beijing over the war and a dramatic reversal” from their last meeting in February when they proclaimed a “no limits” partnership.

However, it is intriguing why the Russian President acknowledged in public the differences with China on Ukraine, especially when reports were widely circulating about reversals suffered by the Russian army at the hands of the Ukrainian forces in recent battles.

He made identical remarks the next day while meeting Modi.

“I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, the concerns that you constantly express,” he said. “We will do our best to stop this as soon as possible,’’ Putin added.

But unlike the Chinese President, the Indian Prime Minister highlighted some of his concerns in public. “Today’s era is not of war,” Modi said at the meeting as he told the Russian President to find ways to address the global food and energy security crisis in the wake of the Ukraine war.

Modi said that an early resolution of the eight-month-long conflict will be beneficial for all, especially the poor and developing countries of the world.

But even as Putin assured that he would make all efforts to bring an early end to the war, he claimed, “Unfortunately, the opposing side, the leadership of Ukraine, has announced its repudiation of the negotiation process, declared that it wants to achieve its goals by military means, as they say, ‘on the battlefield’.”

“Nevertheless, we will always keep you informed of what is happening there,” he told Modi.

India has been among the few countries with access to both Russia and Ukraine, and in recent months had also been requested by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to talk to both to end the war.

China’s growing concerns over a prolonged war in Ukraine stems from its geostrategic interests.

Observers say that the longer China remains close to Russia, it not only affects its multi-billion dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Europe but also forces European countries to align with the US against a growing Sino-Russo alliance.

This not only cuts off Chinese access to European markets but also cuts its access to sophisticated European technology.

Moreover, it increases the ability of the US and its allies to corner China on Taiwan and in the Indo-Pacific.

Therefore, China is trying to balance its interests. It does not want Russia to lose the war and become too weak to resist the US-led western pressure on it.

Observers say, if such a situation does arise, it will affect Beijing as a resurgent America and its Asian allies will then concentrate on marginalising China.

The situation demands diplomatic balance from India. While it does not want to jeopardise relations with the US and Europe, a weakened Russia scarred by the Ukraine war is not a good outcome either.

If that happens, Russia will be cut off from the western markets and become more dependent on China. This, in turn, can hamper the strong strategic ties that India and Russia currently enjoy.

The best scenario for India and most other countries in the world is, therefore, an early end to the Ukraine war.