Rupee hurtling towards 90, here's how to guard your portfolio against currency turmoil

A weakening rupee reshapes investment landscapes.

The rupee plummeted to a new low of 89.92 against the US dollar on December 2, intensifying concerns for investors navigating a volatile economic landscape.

The depreciation erodes the value of domestic savings, inflates import costs and amplifies inflation pressures, particularly hitting sectors reliant on foreign goods.

For investors, the fallout includes diminished real returns on fixed-income assets and heightened risks to unhedged portfolios.

The ripple effect

A weakening rupee reshapes investment landscapes. Equity markets may wobble as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pull out, seeking safer havens amid global uncertainties. Bond yields could climb but real returns lag due to currency drag.

"Interest-rate fluctuations and changes in the trend of inflation are also part of the movement of the currency. Generally, with rising inflation, the rupee is resistant, while India's high interest rates help to bolster the currency," Kirang Gandhi, a Pune-based financial mentor, said.

Yet, persistent depreciation often signals deeper imbalances like trade deficits, which can see investors pivot toward resilient assets, he added.

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Building a hedge: Global and domestic defences

To counter rupee erosion, experts advocate blending international exposure with domestic winners.

Lt Col Rochak Bakshi (retired), founder of True North Finance, a financial and investment planning firm, said, "Investing in international stocks or mutual funds is a very logical strategy to counter rupee depreciation, provided you structure it properly and understand the currency dynamic."

US equities, for instance, have historically delivered a 2-3 percent annual edge for Indian investors purely from rupee weakness.

Gandhi suggested allocating 10-20 percent of portfolio to global equities, particularly US-based funds or international mutual funds, as they provide a natural hedge against a strengthening dollar. Complement this with export-oriented sectors such as IT and pharmaceuticals, where dollar-denominated revenues inflate profits as the rupee dips.

The power of commodities and rebalancing

Real assets shine in such scenarios and gold, a timeless hedge, preserves value amid currency slides.

"Maintain exposure to real assets and commodities like gold that tend to hold value even with currency declines," Bakshi said.

Gandhi favoured allocating 5-10 percent of portfolio to gold ETFs or sovereign gold bonds during periods of inflation or geopolitical uncertainty.

Global events can intensify pressure on emerging-market currencies, including the rupee.

Bakshi called for periodic portfolio rebalancing, suggesting a general allocation of 70-80 percent to domestic assets and 20-30 percent to international assets, adjusted according to individual risk tolerance.

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Adjusting to macro shifts

Interest rate differentials and inflation trajectories demand agility. Lower Indian rates versus global peers spur outflows, weakening the rupee, while elevated inflation hikes import costs.

“Investors should raise their allocation to equities, reducing low-yielding debt and maintaining sufficient liquidity," Gandhi said.

Be mindful of tax laws, inheritance taxes and rules for tax collected at source before investing globally," Bakshi said.

Countries like the US impose inheritance taxes on assets over $60,000, underscoring the need for compliant structures.