Muslim nations report increase in majority religion, Christian nations see decline: Study

Professor Shamika Ravi is a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM)

Most Christian-majority countries saw a decline in the share of their majority religious denomination in 2015, compared to 1950, while Muslim-majority nations witnessed an increase in the same parameter, according to a working paper, 'Share of Religious Minorities -- A Cross-Country Analysis', prepared by members of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM).

The paper is authored by EAC-PM member Shamika Ravi; Apurv Kumar Mishra, Consultant, EAC-PM; and, Abraham Jose, Young Professional, EAC-PM.

It analyses demographic data from 'Religious Characteristics of the States Dataset Project - Demographics', published by the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA) in 2019.

“Of the 94 countries that reported being Christian majority in 1950, 77 saw a decrease in the share of the majority religious denomination. In the same period, 25 out of the 38 countries that reported being Muslim majority, saw an increase in the share of the majority religious denomination. Thirty three out of 35 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries included in our analysis have witnessed a decline in the share of the majority religious denomination, of which 30 have seen a significant decline,” the paper co-authored by EAC-PM member Shamika Ravi revealed.

The study provides examples to elaborate on its findings. Lebanon was a Christian majority nation in 1950, which constituted 51.65 percent of the population. In 2015, the country became a Muslim-majority nation, comprising approximately 61 percent of the population.

India and her neighbours 

India, too, witnessed a reduction in the share of the majority religious population by 7.81 percent in 1950-2015, with the share of the Muslim population rising 43.15 percent during the same period.

The decline in the majority population is only next to Myanmar, which witnessed a 10 percent decline, among the 167 countries analysed in the working paper.

Analysing the demographic changes among the members of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) -- India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Maldives -- along with Myanmar, the paper reveals that all the Muslim-majority countries witnessed an increase in the share of the majority religious denomination, except Maldives, where the share of the majority group (Shafi’i Sunnis) declined by 1.47 percent.

While among the five non-Muslim majority countries, Myanmar, India and Nepal saw a decline in the share of the majority religious denomination, Sri Lanka and Bhutan saw their share increase.

Demographic changes in Majority Muslim and Christian nations

The authors said that they were interested in noting the composition of demographic changes in these countries because of their geographical proximity to India. Therefore, any significant fluctuation in their population has a spill over effect on the polity and policies of India.

'Abnormal change in Bangladesh'

The working paper further highlighted the “abnormal change” in Bangladesh’s demography.

In 2015, the Hindu population in Bangladesh declined to 8 percent, compared to 1950, a 66 percent decrease in a world where minorities, on an average, increased by 22 percent globally.

“In 1950, Muslims constituted 76 percent of the population in what was then East Pakistan and is today Bangladesh. Hindus were the second-largest share of the population at 23 percent. The next two largest groups were Buddhists and Christians who constituted 0.66 percent and 0.17 percent, respectively,” according to the working paper.

Interestingly, the fate of other minorities in Bangladesh was markedly different. The Buddhist population remained stable at 0.63 percent, while the share of Christian population tripled to 0.53 percent.