Budget 2026 Expectations: Policy continuity or fresh reforms? What markets expect from upcoming Budget

Vivek Desai, Founder and Managing Director of HOSMAC, said healthcare should be treated as a long-term nation-building priority in Budget 2026-27.

He called for a meaningful increase in healthcare allocation and GST simplification for providers facing limited input tax set-off.

Desai urged incentives for Make-in-India MedTech to reduce import dependence and build domestic manufacturing capacity.

He sought expanded skill development in nursing and paramedical education to address workforce shortages.

He also called for longer-tenure hospital financing, VGF support for semi-urban and rural hospital projects, and higher allocation for digital health and AI-led telemedicine.

Desai urged a sharper focus on geriatric care and expanding Ayushman Bharat to include the middle class.

SB Seker, Head of APAC at Binance, said India’s rapid adoption of blockchain and virtual digital assets (VDAs) reflects the scale of its digital economy and rising retail participation.

He said the upcoming budget is an opportunity for measured regulatory and tax changes that protect users, maintain financial stability and support responsible market growth.

On taxation, Seker suggested a framework focused on realised capital gains, limited loss set-off, and replacing transaction-level levies with net-revenue-based corporate taxes.

He called for clear operating standards for VDA platforms aligned with AML/KYC and investor protection.

A balanced, predictable regime, he said, can drive investment, jobs and long-term economic value.

Amith Agarwal, co-founder and CEO of StarAgri, said the agritech sector is looking to Budget for stronger support for digitisation and technology adoption in farming.

He called for a renewed push to the Digital Agriculture Mission, including support for agritech projects in AI-based crop monitoring, GPS-driven farm mapping, and drone-enabled farming.

Agarwal said these interventions can increase farmer participation online and improve on-ground decision-making.

He also urged the finance minister to set up a policy process or committee to design an alternative rural credit framework that better reflects farmers’ income patterns and financial behaviour.

He sought differentiated ratings and higher lending limits for agri- and rural-focused NBFCs specialising in farmer credit.

Viram Shah, Founder and CEO of Vested Finance, said Indian investors are increasingly using global investing as a long-term diversification strategy for goals such as retirement, overseas education and dollar exposure.

He said the Union Budget is an opportunity to reduce friction for overseas investing under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS).

Shah suggested building on the higher TCS threshold and rationalising TCS rates to improve liquidity and make long-term allocations easier.

He also called for strengthening GIFT City as India’s global investment gateway through clear, tax-neutral treatment for outbound investments and global funds.

Maintaining the $250,000 LRS limit, he said, would provide stability for investors amid currency volatility.

Kunal Mundra, Founder and CEO of Astranova Mobility, said India’s EV policy direction is clear, but the GST framework is not fully aligned with adoption goals.

He pointed to the current tax structure where electric vehicles are taxed at 5%, while batteries attract 18%.

Mundra said the differential complicates pricing and weakens newer ownership models such as Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) and battery swapping.

These models, he said, are critical to lowering upfront costs and improving affordability for commercial users, where large-scale adoption is expected to come from.

He urged the government to align GST at 5% across EVs and core components, including batteries, to create clarity, reduce total cost of ownership and remove a key friction holding back adoption.

Swarup Bose, Founder & CEO of Celcius Logistics, said 2025 saw steady progress in India’s logistics sector through infrastructure build-out, policy alignment and technology adoption.

He said the sector is now at an inflection point and Budget 2026 can help accelerate growth by stepping up investment in integrated logistics and cold chain infrastructure.

Bose said stronger cold chain and integrated networks are critical to reduce wastage, improve turnaround times and strengthen agri and pharma supply chains.

He called for targeted fiscal incentives for temperature-controlled warehousing, easier access to capital for tech-led logistics companies, and deeper public–private collaboration to improve efficiency.

Bose said a focused push could support sector growth, improve food security and strengthen India’s competitiveness as a global supply-chain hub.

Vikkas Goyal, Founder of VimanoTech, said Budget 2026 is an opportunity to deepen financial inclusion and expand access to credit as India moves towards a simpler, more predictable tax regime.

He said targeted tax refinements—such as modest increases in standard deductions or allowances for housing, insurance and retirement savings—could raise disposable income and support responsible borrowing.

Goyal said higher take-home pay can also help households invest in long-term financial goals, improving credit quality over time.

He called for clear policy direction, streamlined compliance and regulatory certainty to support scalable and efficient lending infrastructure.

Such clarity, he said, would help banks and financial institutions reach underserved segments while sustaining growth, innovation and stability in India’s consumer finance and lending ecosystem.

Man Mohit, CEO of AdSocial.ai, said Budget 2026 moves to simplify taxation and raise disposable income could influence consumer behaviour and digital spending.

He said even modest tax refinements that increase take-home pay can translate into stronger demand for businesses in e-commerce, local services and emerging online markets.

For the digital advertising ecosystem, he said higher consumer spending typically drives greater marketing outlays as brands compete for online demand.

Mohit said AI-powered advertising platforms will be important in this environment, helping brands improve targeting, measure ROI more effectively and respond to shifting consumer preferences.

He added that clear policy direction and tax certainty would support consumer confidence and help sustain innovation and growth in India’s digital economy.

Sumit Gupta, co-founder of CoinDCX, said the virtual digital asset (VDA) sector is looking for “measured relief” in Budget 2026, noting it has been four years since the current tax framework was introduced.

He said policy decisions now could accelerate innovation and help India position itself as a global Web3 and VDA hub.

Gupta called for clearer rules and a uniform mandate requiring all crypto exchanges to implement TDS provisions, which he said would strengthen compliance and improve user protection against non-compliant operators.

He proposed reducing TDS on VDA transactions from 1% to 0.01%, arguing this would preserve monitoring while reducing incentives for users to shift activity to offshore platforms and improving transaction visibility.

Gupta also suggested aligning the 30% capital gains tax on VDAs with income tax slabs, and allowing loss offsetting and standard business deductions for Web3 ventures.

He said these changes would support a more stable, transparent and “future-ready” ecosystem for responsible innovation in India.

Yogesh Mudras, Managing Director, Informa Markets in India, said the infrastructure sector remains central to India’s economic growth and its long-term goal of becoming a multi-trillion-dollar economy.

He said the sector expects the government to accelerate momentum under flagship programmes such as the National Infrastructure Pipeline and production-linked incentive (PLI) frameworks.

Mudras said infrastructure allocations should not only be sustained but enhanced, citing the sector’s multiplier effect on employment, industrial growth and urban development.

He called for higher investment across transportation, energy, water and urban infrastructure, along with sharper focus on smart cities, affordable housing and digital infrastructure.

He also sought sustained support for exhibition and convention infrastructure, saying it can strengthen trade, tourism and global business engagement.

Mudras said clearer policy signals and collaboration are needed to encourage greater private sector participation in infrastructure projects.

Arjun Gupta, Founder & CEO of KragBuzz Sports, said Union Budget 2026 is a key opportunity to accelerate India’s sports and fitness ecosystem.

He pointed to the growing sports and activewear market, which he said is projected to reach $21.25 billion by 2033 with around 5.5% CAGR, making it a bigger part of India’s fashion and lifestyle economy.

Gupta said sportswear could form a larger share of fashion retail by 2030, driven by rising fitness awareness and youth participation.

For FY 2026-27, he called for investment in modern sports facilities, especially in Tier II and Tier III cities, where interest in sports is rising.

He also urged continued focus on national programmes such as Fit India and Khelo India to build a stronger fitness culture and identify talent early.

Gupta sought incentives for domestic manufacturers, including tax benefits and simplified regulations, to help Indian companies scale responsibly and offer quality sportswear at affordable prices.

Vishal Mehra, co-founder of Stylox Fashion, said the Union Budgets 2026 and 2027 are key for scaling homegrown apparel brands.

He urged a simpler, more consistent GST structure for clothing, especially the mid-price segment, to help organised brands compete with the unorganised sector and imports.

Mehra called for stronger incentives for sustainable manufacturing through tax benefits or subsidies so green transitions don’t raise costs.

He also sought easier, affordable working-capital credit for MSME manufacturers and retailers to improve inventory planning, expansion and job creation.

He said support for local sourcing, skill development and Tier II–III retail expansion can drive the next growth phase.

Mr. Angshu Mallick, Executive Deputy Chairman of AWL Agri Business Ltd, said Budget 2026 will be important for consumption-led sectors such as FMCG and food staples, which are closely linked to household spending, farmer livelihoods and food security.

Mallick said policy stability and calibrated fiscal measures over the past year helped sustain demand without adding inflationary pressure. With rural markets showing steady recovery, he said the government should continue to prioritise farm incomes, agri-infrastructure and consumption support to strengthen growth at the base of the economy.

He also flagged the need for stronger policy support to expand domestic edible oilseed cultivation, including mustard and soybean, to reduce India’s dependence on edible oil imports and support the Aatmanirbhar Bharat goal.

Mallick said AWL Agri Business is working on this through farmer partnerships, mustard-led model farm initiatives and integrated procurement-to-processing supply chains. He added that the company’s focus on digitisation, infrastructure development and sustainable sourcing is aimed at improving productivity, ensuring demand for farmers and strengthening resilience across the value chain.

A clear and predictable policy environment would help the industry scale responsibly, invest with confidence and contribute to inclusive growth, Mallick said.

Arun Singhvi, MD & CEO of ASG Eye Hospital, said the GST 2.0 reforms implemented in September 2025 have provided a boost to healthcare, particularly eye care, after the government reduced GST on ophthalmic equipment from 12% to 5%.

Singhvi said the rate cut supports ASG Eye Hospital’s “Vision 2030” plan to expand affordable and accessible eye care across India by lowering the tax barrier on essential medical technology.

He urged the government to address what he called “embedded taxes” that continue to raise operating costs for hospitals. Because clinical services remain in the exempt category, hospitals cannot claim input tax credit (ITC) on equipment and services they procure. Singhvi said granting zero-rated status to healthcare or introducing a minimal GST slab with full ITC eligibility could unlock an estimated 5–6% of costs trapped in the supply chain, enabling hospitals to pass on savings to patients.

He also called for removing the residual 7.5%–10% basic customs duty and the 5% health cess on high-precision, non-indigenous technologies such as femtosecond lasers and advanced retinal imaging systems, arguing this would improve adoption in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities.

On technology adoption, Singhvi proposed weighted tax deductions on AI-related capital expenditure, lower duties on diagnostic machines with embedded AI software, and interest subsidies for centres expanding into underserved areas. He also backed expanding the PLI scheme to support domestic manufacturing of ophthalmic equipment.

Emobi CEO Bharath Rao urges the government to link EV startup subsidies to actual vehicle sales in Budget 2026. Startups also seek reform in CGTMSE and MUDRA schemes to eliminate rigid collateral requirements by banks.

“An extension of subsidy and support to startup companies based on sales of vehicles is essential to support smaller companies in building manufacturing capabilities. At present, CGTMSE, MUDRA and PMEGP programmes still have requirements from banks and NBFCs of additional collateral, and very few proposals are taken against the security mechanism being offered by Central Governments. Making appropriate guidelines to ease access to Central Government–guaranteed schemes would help the startup industry. Further, effectively monitoring existing schemes and enabling ease of access to startups to the existing schemes would significantly improve the business prospects for startup companies.”

Padmanand V, Partner and Agriculture Industry Leader, Grant Thornton Bharat says, “The agri and allied sector budget in FY 2024-25 stood at INR 1.52 lakh crore and for FY 2025-26 stood at 1.37 lakh crore, with related budget spend in terms of MSP and input subsidy effectively at of over INR 3.91 lakh crore. This implies that the bulk of the budget is towards DBT and subsidies and not towards facilitation of investment in farm mechanisation and in infrastructure, which was effectively less to the tune of INR 30,000 crore. It is expected that the upcoming budget would be more rational with greater allocation towards direct infrastructure spend through PPP as well as investment subsidies, as to be more in sync with the practices in other more developed ecosystems such as in the USA and China.

It is the investment multiplier, given the Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) that will lead to sustained and rapid growth of the agri sector. Therefore, there is need for considerable increase in investment spend in the budget as against the typical consumption oriented spend in terms of DBT, MSP support and subsidizing operational expenditure in the agri budget.”

Ajay Kumar Yadav CFPCM,  Group CEO & CIO, Wise Finserv: As the Union Budget approaches, markets are not seeking dramatic announcements. They are looking for reassurance. After months of global uncertainty, sustained foreign outflows, and subdued earnings growth, stability has become more important than spectacle.

India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies, but growth has moderated. Corporate earnings have stayed in single digits for several quarters, reflecting uneven demand and margin pressure. With the RBI having already eased monetary policy, expectations from this Budget are firmly centred on fiscal direction.

India’s reform base is strong. The new tax regime has simplified personal taxation, while GST reforms have improved compliance. The next step should focus on targeted fiscal support. Incentives linked to job creation, incremental investment, and manufacturing capacity can revive private capex without stretching fiscal discipline. Continued thrust on infrastructure spending would also help crowd in private investment and support employment. This Budget does not need to be loud. It needs to be clear. A steady, focused approach can quietly rebuild confidence and sustain long-term growth.

Amit Banka, Founder & CEO of WeNaturalists: As the population grows, water demand rises. Be it for agriculture, consumption, or livelihoods. When water disappears, farms fail, people migrate, cities become overcrowded, and livelihoods become dependent on carbon-heavy manufacturing. This is an endless cycle with water at the heart of the issue. And the chain reaction is already visible across India.

As we look at Budget 2026, we need to make water our national priority, not just a state subject. Just like highways connected the country economically, we now need “water highways” to move surplus water to drought-hit regions. Only about 60% of India’s renewable water resources are currently utilizable with existing storage and infrastructure. Meaning roughly 40% of natural water availability is not effectively captured for human use.

Large amounts of water still flow into the sea unused. We must build systems to capture and redistribute this water. This can significantly aid in preventing climate migration and loss of livelihoods. While budgets often focus on renewables, many regions still face load shedding, and forest cover continues to decline. Along with roads and cities, we must invest in forest and water infrastructure. Solving the water crisis can reduce migration, ease urban crowding, and cut emissions at the source. Climate change is not just an environmental issue. It is a basic needs issue. And only large-scale government intervention can solve it.

Prashasta Seth, CEO, Prudent Investment Managers: As we approach the Union Budget 2026, the key macro risk to watch remains the impact of persistently high tariffs on exports to the US. This poses a meaningful challenge to India’s balance of payments and could exert pressure on the rupee if not addressed through targeted policy measures. Export-oriented MSME sectors such as textiles and gems & jewellery are particularly vulnerable and would benefit from focused support, easier credit access, and trade facilitation initiatives.*

From a fiscal standpoint, maintaining discipline will be critical. We expect the government to adhere to the FY26 fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of GDP, with a credible roadmap towards 4–4.1% in FY27, supported by nominal GDP growth of around 10%. Capital expenditure is likely to remain a policy priority, with a 10–12% increase, especially in infrastructure segments like roads and railways, which have strong multiplier effects on growth and employment.

Given the significant tax measures already undertaken this fiscal, major tax relief appears unlikely. Instead, the Budget should focus on improving the overall business environment through reforms that support startups, labour market flexibility, defence manufacturing, and the broader self-reliance agenda, ensuring sustainable long-term growth.

Nishant Shah, Partner, Economic Laws Practice: After an economy boosting and disposable income creating Budget 2025, the Union Budget 2026 is also expected to be a “continuity plus reform” exercise, balancing fiscal caution with targeted tax and sectoral measures. There is a need for continuing growth trajectory, tax certainty and sector-led incentives, while simplifying both direct and indirect tax administration to improve ease of doing business.

On direct taxes, a key expectation is broader tax certainty for foreign investors and smoother implementation of the new Income-tax Act, 2025. Within this, the government is reportedly examining a proposal to exempt sovereign wealth funds and other patient capital from tax on equity gains in Indian listed securities, expanding the current, narrower exemptions that focus mainly on infrastructure investments. This is aimed at reversing recent FPI outflows and attracting long‑term, stable capital.

Stakeholders also anticipate long awaited concrete steps toward decriminalisation of income tax laws, in line with NITI Aayog’s October 2025 recommendations. Adopting these proposals and thereby retaining only a limited number of offences for having criminal consequences, would reduce litigation, build taxpayer trust and support a more facilitative tax regime. This would also be in line with the overall trend of decriminalisation observed in other corporate laws.

On the Customs front, a first of its kind customs amnesty scheme modelled on earlier successful programmes, enabling one‑time settlement and revenue realisation is expected. With over Rs 1.5 lakh crore locked in customs litigation, industry expects an amnesty / dispute‑resolution scheme that is attractive enough to facilitate resolution of such huge pendency of customs litigation. Complementing this and in line with the Hon’ble Finance Minister’s announcement during the last budget, there is strong expectation for customs tariff rate rationalisation and simplification of the tariff structure, to reduce compliance burdens, align rates with global benchmarks and improve export competitiveness. Another expectation is from the perspective of ironing out constraints in availing benefits under various FTAs that India has entered into, not just recently, but over the past few decades. This in turn will facilitate larger international engagement with lesser-known trade partners, especially while facing headwinds from established trade partners.

Together, these measures are expected to anchor a pro‑investment, growth‑supportive and economy boosting Budget 2026.

Ayush Jhawar, Founder and CEO of Genefied: The forthcoming budget should focus on policies that advance digital transformation for consumer brands and retail ecosystems. This will benefit the industry, as AI-powered loyalty platforms, real-time supply-chain traceability, and anti-counterfeiting solutions will receive increased support. Tax incentives, easier access to R&D funding, and regulatory frameworks that support QR-based product authentication should also be given additional incentives to spur growth in both general trade and modern retail. These positive steps will align with the mission of the entire ecosystem and help brands Scale Every Interaction—converting data into loyalty, visibility, and sustainable revenue growth.

Srikanth Kandikonda, Chief Financial Officer, ManipalCigna Health Insurance:

“Medical inflation continues to be one of the biggest challenges facing India’s healthcare system, projected at 11.5%–14%, among the highest in Asia. While measures such as the removal of GST on insurance premiums and allowing 100 percent FDI in insurance can improve affordability and sector resilience, rising medical costs continue to put pressure on Indian households.

As the Union Budget 2026–27 approaches, there is an opportunity to strengthen healthcare affordability through higher public health spending and a sharper focus on prevention. Currently, public health expenditure in India remains below global benchmarks and even short of the National Health Policy target of 2.5% of GDP in 2025. Enhancing the budgetary outlay for public health would strengthen primary care networks, expand preventive services, and relieve financial stress on citizens.

At the same time, policy measures that encourage preventive healthcare can significantly lower long-term treatment costs. Industry reports indicate that preventive care reduces hospitalisations and improves health outcomes. Introducing separate and enhanced tax benefits for OPD services and preventive health screenings, beyond the current limits under Section 80D, would encourage wider adoption of preventive care.

With India’s ageing population and rising burden of chronic diseases, a prevention-led approach, supported by budgetary reforms, can play a critical role in improving health outcomes in the country.”

Tarun Chugh, MD and CEO, Bajaj Life Insurance: As the Union Budget approaches, it presents an opportunity to strengthen life insurance as a long-term savings and retirement solution through more consistent and equitable policy support. Recent policy measures, such as the exemption of insurance premiums from GST, have laid a strong foundation for sectoral growth, and the Budget can build on this momentum through thoughtful, outcome-oriented measures.

India’s insurance sector has made steady progress, but penetration and coverage gaps remain significant, particularly in retirement planning and rural protection.

Aligning the tax treatment of insurance annuities with other pension instruments, such as taxing only the returns on annuity payouts and extending comparable deductions, would allow individuals to choose retirement products based on suitability rather than tax differences. Similarly, bringing parity in taxation between traditional and unit-linked life insurance policies can simplify the tax framework and encourage disciplined, long-term wealth creation alongside protection.

Improving affordability in rural and social insurance segments is equally important. Rationalising transaction costs, including stamp duty exemptions for low-ticket policies, can help expand access and deepen insurance penetration.

With these policy measures, life insurance can play a stronger role in building retirement security, financial inclusion and long-term resilience for Indian households.”

In the upcoming Union Budget, markets expect continuity via schemes such as PM Surya Ghar rooftop solar, Green Energy Corridor, RDSS for discoms, SMR nuclear mission and pumped storage support. Focus is also expected to remain on renewables, grid expansion and storage, with limited new allocations or near-term market impact.

While the Budget is unlikely to act as a near-term trigger for stocks, it should reinforce the long-term direction for nuclear power, renewables, storage and transmission. Read more