Cement major UltraTech is likely to post a strong performance in Q1FY26, driven by volume growth, improved pricing, and easing costs, according to brokerages.
According to a Moneycontrol poll of eight brokerages, UltraTech’s consolidated revenue is estimated to rise 19 percent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 21,868 crore in Q1FY26.
The company is set to announce its Q1 earnings on July 21.
Net profit is likely to grow nearly 13.7 percent YoY to around Rs 2,463 crore. Consensus estimates peg EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation) margin at 20.6 percent, up from 16.8 percent in Q1FY25. Most analysts attribute the margin gains to softer input costs and better operational efficiency.
The most pessimistic estimate is by Equirus, which expects the net profit to fall to Rs 1,648 crore, while the most optimistic is PL Capital, which expects the net profit to grow to Rs 3,211 crore.
What will drive earnings?
Volume growth
UltraTech Cement’s Q1FY26 volumes are expected to fall around 6 percent QoQ to ~34.9 metric tonne due to seasonal weakness, but rise 13 percent YoY on the back of recent acquisitions. Equirus sees similar growth, citing outperformance versus peers. Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects 17 percent YoY growth, though just 6 percent on a like-for-like basis. Nuvama and Yes Securities forecast higher YoY growth of 18 percent and 31 percent, respectively, with Yes Securities also seeing 2 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth.
Realisation improvement
Most brokerages see a modest uptick in cement prices. PL Capital, Axis Securities and Motilal Oswal expect a 3 percent QoQ increase. Equirus Securities pegs it at 1 percent QoQ, while Yes Securities and Nuvama estimate a 1–1.75 percent rise. Gains from white cement and RMC are seen supporting overall realisations amid muted grey cement pricing.
Operating costs
Cost control remains a tailwind. Yes Securities expects operating expenditure per tonne to fall 7.2 percent YoY and 2.9 percent QoQ. Motilal Oswal sees flat variable costs, with operating expenditure per tonne down 2 percent YoY. Equirus, however, highlights margin pressure, projecting a Rs 140 QoQ fall in EBITDA/tonne due to lower fixed cost absorption.
Margin expansion
PL Capital and Axis peg EBITDA/t at Rs 1,277, up by around Rs 37 QoQ and 32 percent YoY. Yes Securities forecasts Rs 1,287 (14 percent QoQ, 35 percent YoY), while Motilal Oswal expects Rs 1,186 vs Rs 951 YoY. Nuvama projects Rs 1,084. Equirus remains cautious, expecting sequential margin decline.
Non-core segments
White cement and RMC are expected to aid overall performance. Yes Securities sees realisation gains from these segments, while Motilal Oswal estimates 13 percent YoY growth in RMC, with white cement revenue flat.
What analysts will be watching for:
Key factors in focus will be demand recovery in core markets, cement pricing trends, input costs, and capex plans.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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