Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 reclaim 26,300, Bank Nifty move above 60,200 amid possible range-bound trade?

Nifty Trading Plan for January 6

• As long as the Bank Nifty holds 60,000 on a closing basis, an upmove back toward 60,200–60,450 can be seen. However, a decisive decline below this level could take the index down toward 59,700–59,500, which is the crucial support zone.

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The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty witnessed profit booking after hitting record highs, while momentum and technical indicators remained favourable for bulls despite consolidation in the recent session. If the Nifty 50 defends the 26,200 level, a possible move toward 26,300–26,400 cannot be ruled out, followed by 26,500. However, a decisive fall below this level could drag the index toward 26,000, which is the crucial support. Meanwhile, as long as the Bank Nifty holds 60,000 on a closing basis, an upmove back toward 60,200–60,450 can be seen. However, a decisive decline below this level could take the index down toward 59,700–59,500, which is the crucial support zone, experts said.

On January 5, the Nifty 50 fell 78 points to 26,250, while the Bank Nifty dropped 107 points to 60,044. Market breadth turned weak as about 1,821 shares saw selling pressure, against 1,068 shares that were supported by bulls.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Nifty closed in negative territory on the first day of the week after hitting an all-time high of 26,373. India VIX rose for the second consecutive day and closed at 10.02, up by 6.06%.

On the options front, the PCR (Put–Call Ratio) moved beyond 1.6, which is an overbought reading; hence, there was some profit booking from higher levels. However, the 26,000 level is an immediate support, as it has the highest Put base. It has acted as a critical support in the last series as well. Hence, until the 26,000 level is held, the short-term outlook for the index remains positive.

On the upside, for the weekly expiry day, 26,400 appears to act as a supply zone. However, the 26,300 level has the highest Call base, so the immediate range is 26,300–26,000, and beyond that, it will be 26,000–26,400.

FIIs continue to be sellers in the equity cash segment. However, until last Friday, their index shorts had reduced to approximately 1.30 lakh contracts from 1.66 lakh contracts, indicating a short-term uptrend in the index. Since shorts are still high and India VIX is low, there is a higher chance of overall short covering in the index, along with a rise in India VIX. Generally, India VIX rises ahead of the Budget by almost 25–30% from the December series close.

Key Resistance: 26,600

Key Support: 26,000

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures at CMP around 26,250 and on dips near 26,150, with a stop-loss below 26,000, targeting 26,400 and 26,600.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

Despite Monday's mild pullback, the overall technical structure remains constructive. The Nifty 50 continues to trade above its 10- and 20-period DEMA, which is a positive sign and indicates short-term trend support.

On the momentum front, the daily MACD has formed a bullish crossover above the zero line, reinforcing the likelihood of further upside. Additionally, the RSI has surpassed its previous swing high, reflecting improving strength and sustained buying interest.

From a derivatives perspective, the Nifty Put–Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 0.96, suggesting comfortable and balanced market positioning. Considering these supportive technical and sentiment indicators, bullish momentum is expected to resume in the coming sessions.

Key Resistance: 26,300, 26,400

Key Support: 26,100, 26,000

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures in the zone of 26,300–26,200, with a stop-loss at 26,100, targeting 26,550.

Shitij Gandhi, AVP - Technical Equity Research at SMC Global Securities

Despite Monday’s decline, Nifty’s daily chart continues to signal a phase of healthy consolidation rather than weakness. The index has cooled off from higher levels but is still trading above its short-term moving averages, keeping the broader trend intact. Price action shows a higher-low formation, suggesting the market is taking a breather.

Immediate support lies in the 26,100–25,900 zone, while resistance is placed near 26,300–26,400. Derivatives data also points to a range-bound move, with Call writing at higher strikes and Put support near 26,000. Overall, Nifty is likely to consolidate, with dips expected to attract selective buying.

Key Resistance: 26,350, 26,500

Key Support: 26,200, 26,100

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 26,200, with a stop-loss below 26,100, targeting 26,400.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Bank Nifty also closed marginally in negative territory on the first day of the week. However, it closed above the 60,000 level, which has the second-highest Put base after the 59,500 strike, which has the highest Put base. On the upside, after the 60,000 strike, the 62,000 strike has the highest Call base, indicating that Bank Nifty has relatively better data compared to Nifty.

The PCR stands at 1.09, indicating a bullish trend in the near term. Hence, until the 59,500 level is not broken on a closing basis, the bias remains positive for targets of 61,000 and beyond.

Key Resistance: 61,000, 62,000

Key Support: 60,000, 59,500

Strategy: Buy at CMP around 60,044 and on dips near 59,800, with a stop-loss below 59,500, targeting 61,000 and 62,000.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

In the most recent trading session, Bank Nifty witnessed profit booking from its all-time high of 60,437 and eventually settled marginally above the 60,000 mark. Despite this mild retracement, the overall technical setup remains constructive. The index continues to trade above its 10- and 20-period DEMA, indicating that the short-term trend remains intact and supportive.

On the momentum front, the daily MACD has registered a bullish crossover above the zero line, strengthening the case for further upside. Additionally, the RSI has moved past its previous swing high, highlighting improving momentum and sustained buying interest.

From a derivatives standpoint, the Put–Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 1.09, suggesting bullish market positioning. Considering these supportive technical and sentiment indicators, bullish momentum is likely to resume in the coming sessions.

Key Resistance: 60,450, 60,700

Key Support: 59,850, 59,700

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the zone of 60,100–60,000, with a stop-loss of 59,700, targeting 60,600.

Shitij Gandhi, AVP - Technical Equity Research at SMC Global Securities

Bank Nifty started the new week on a cautious note, slipping into negative territory after touching record highs in early trade. Despite the intraday pullback, the index managed to sustain above the key psychological level of 60,000, reflecting underlying strength. On short-term charts, Bank Nifty continues to trade comfortably above its important moving averages and is gaining momentum within a rising channel, supported by a clear higher-bottom formation.

On the downside, the 59,700–59,500 zone remains a critical support band; a decisive break below this area could open the door for a decline toward 59,100. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed near 60,200, followed by 60,300. Overall, the chart structure indicates consolidation with a mildly positive bias, provided key supports remain intact.

Key Resistance: 60,300, 60,500

Key Support: 59,800, 59,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near 59,800, with a stop-loss below 59,500, targeting 60,300.