Closing Bell: Nifty above 21,700, Sensex gains 1,241 pts led by oil & gas, power, banks

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities:

The Nifty has surged above the dual resistances of 21500 and 21700. It successfully reclaimed the 20-day moving average (20DMA) after a few days of struggle. Furthermore, the recent upward movement has propelled the index above the critical moving average, indicating a positive trend for the short term. On the higher end, it is poised to potentially reach levels around 22100-22150. The support level is positioned at 21550.

Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:

The Nifty opened gap up and continued to inch higher throughout the day to close in the green up ~385 points. On the daily charts we can observe that the Nifty has breached the previous swing high of 21750 and hence violates the downtrend as the lower top lower bottom formation has been violated. During the fall the Nifty held on to the support of the 40-day average placed around 21200 which shall now act as a lower boundary during the consolidation phase.

On the upside, the Index can continue its pullback towards 21913 which coincides with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement level of the fall from 22124 – 21137 and also the gap formed on the 17th January, 2024 in the range 21850 – 22000 shall act as an immediate hurdle going ahead. The daily momentum indicator has a negative crossover however it has reached the equilibrium line and also prices are not showing weakness which can lead to a range bound action over the next few trading sessions. Considering the above parameters we shall change our outlook on the Nifty to sideways and the broad range of consolidation is likely to be 21200 – 22000.

Bank Nifty is in the process of retracing the fall it has witnessed from 48300 – 44500 and hence the pullback can continue till 46000 – 46200 from short term perspective. On the downside 45110 is the crucial support from short term perspective.

Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst, LKP Securities:

Rupee maintained a flat trajectory, fluctuating within the range of 83.10 to 83.15, in line with the steadiness observed in the dollar index, which was hovering around 103. The persistent range-bound movement in rupee, spanning roughly between 83.05 and 83.17 over the past week, indicates a level of stability. The ongoing resistance in the 82.80-82.90 zones and the broader price range between 82.80 and 83.30 are notable features. Market participants are likely to closely monitor the US interest rate decision on February 1, 2024, for potential impacts on currency dynamics.

Marico Q3 Results:

Net profit up 15.9% at Rs 386 crore versus Rs 333 crore and revenue down 1.9% at Rs 2,422 crore versus Rs 2,470 crore, YoY.

Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities

Firm global cues lifted the domestic market sentiment, as the broad-based rally pushed benchmark Sensex above the psychological 72000-mark towards the closing stages. After last week's major sell-off triggered by FII selling, further short covering coupled with recovery in global indices aided renewed optimism in the markets today. While markets could be choppy ahead of the interim budget later this week and credit policy announcement thereafter, any flare up in the conflict in the Red Sea and simmering tensions in West Asia can fuel volatility.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services:

The domestic market underwent an upturn as the recent selloff and positive Asian peers provided an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks. Despite premium valuations, confidence is upheld among investors due to the optimistic environment surrounding the interim budget and recent set of results aligning with forecasts.

Globally, the upcoming FED policy stands out as a crucial factor. While a rate cut by the FOMC is unlikely, investors will eagerly monitor their commentary to get cues on future rate paths.

Aditya Gaggar Director of Progressive Shares:

Today's trade belonged to the Energy segment especially giants i.e. Reliance and ONGC. After commencing the week on a strong note around its crucial resistance of 21,500, the Index kept on compounding its gains in the presence of follow-through and finally settled at 21,737.60 with gains of 385 points.

Barring FMCG, all other sectors ended the day in green with Energy and PSU Banking being the top performers. In one go only, the Index has breached its multiple hurdles (21,500 & 21,700) and formed a strong bullish candle on the daily chart; however, we assume that Nifty may witness some pressure around 21,750.

It is premature to say but there is a possibility of forming an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. The immediate resistance is placed at 21,850 while the downside seems to be protected at 21,570.

Rupee Close:

Indian rupee ended flat at 83.14 per dollar on Monday against Thursday's close of 83.11.

Market Close: Indian benchmark indices ended higher on January 29 with Nifty around 21,750.

At close, the Sensex was up 1,240.90 points or 1.76 percent at 71,941.57, and the Nifty was up 385.00 points or 1.80 percent at 21,737.60. About 1963 shares advanced, 1393 shares declined, and 95 shares unchanged.

Biggest gainers on the Nifty included ONGC, Reliance Industries, Adani Enterprises, Coal India and Adani Ports, while losers included Cipla, ITC, LTIMindtree, Bajaj Auto and Infosys.

Among sectors, oil & gas index up 5 percent, Power index up 3 percent, and Capital Goods index up 2 percent.

BSE Midcap index rose 1.7 percent and Smallcap index added a percent.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | HSBC View On Shriram Finance:

-Buy call, target raised to Rs 2,720 per share
-Q3 net profit missed estimate by 5.5 percent, due to high credit costs
-Operating performance was in-line with estimate
-Tweak FY24e/25e/26e EPS -2.1 percent/+3.4 percent/+2.1 percent
-EPS tweaks reflect higher credit costs & slightly stronger NIM estimate

Sonam Srivastava, smallcase Manager, Wright Research – Founder

The surge in the Nifty 50 can be largely attributed to investor optimism in anticipation of the upcoming interim budget, where significant allocations are expected in key sectors like infrastructure and energy. This optimism is not unfounded, as government spending in these areas typically signals robust growth prospects, thereby attracting investor interest. Additionally, specific sectors such as defence and railways are experiencing a surge, likely due to expectations of targeted fiscal stimulus. This sector-specific rally is a strong contributor to the overall index performance, as these sectors form a substantial part of the Nifty 50.

Moreover, there's a noticeable rally in cyclical stocks, driven by the broader economic outlook and expectations of growth, which often leads to increased investor confidence in these market segments. The role of domestic investors in this scenario is also crucial. Their increased buying activity, possibly spurred by positive market sentiment and the anticipation of strong future earnings, is creating an upward momentum in stock prices.

While some sectors like IT, FMCG, and Pharma are underperforming, their impact is overshadowed by the gains in other sectors. It's essential to recognize that stock market movements are the result of a complex interplay of various factors, including economic indicators, policy expectations, global trends, and investor behavior. In this case, the collective sentiment seems to be tilting towards optimism, driven by expectations from the interim budget and the consequent potential growth in key sectors.

Sensex Today | Morgan Stanley View On SBI Cards & Payment Services:

-Downgrade to equal-weight call, target cut to Rs 750 from Rs 950 per share
-Net slippages in Q3 higher than estimate
-Management expects two more quarters of elevated credit costs
-Management could not give confidence on normalisation beyond that
-This will cap & de-rate P/E multiple until clarity emerges

Sensex Today | BSE Capital Goods index up 1 percent led by Bharat Forge, L&T, AIA Engineering:

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Morgan Stanley View On Cyient:

-Overweight call, target Rs 2,700 per share
-Lowered revenue guidance implies Q4 growth of 0.5 percent-2 percent QoQ
-Midpoint of margin guidance implies stable to better Q4
-Demand visibility in key verticals of aero, connectivity
-Reiteration of medium-term revenue growth & margin outlook

Sensex Today | Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:

The Indian Rupee declined on Monday on a positive tone in the US Dollar and concerns over rising crude oil prices. Demand for Dollars from importers towards the end of the month also put downside pressure on Rupee. However, a sharp surge in domestic markets cushioned the downside. Domestic markets have risen around 1.8% today.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on month-end Dollar demand from importers and concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Red Sea. However, a rise in global risk sentiments may support Rupee at lower levels. Traders may remain cautious ahead of a US FOMC meeting and India’s Fiscal Budget (Interim) later this week. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.90 to Rs 83.50.

Sensex Today | Nifty Pharma index up 0.5 percent led by Sun Pharma, Lupin, Zydus Lifesciences:

Sensex Today | HSBC View On SBI Life Insurance Company

-Buy call, target Rs 1,720 per share
-Healthy APE growth, limited margin compression
-Improvement in persistency key positive

Sensex Today | BSE Realty index gained 1 percent led by Phoenix Mills, Godrej Properties, Brigade Enterprises:

Morgan Stanley View On SBI Life Insurance Company:

-Overweight call, target Rs 1,770 per share
-In a quarter where peers' VNB declined YoY, company’s VNB grew 11 percent YoY
-VNB growth better-than-expected despite a ULIP-skewed mix
-Amid recent volatility in financial stocks, this remains top pick

Sensex Today | Rahul Sharma, Director, Head - Technical & Derivatives Research at JM Financial Services:

Markets have bounced back strongly after the last two weeks of correction on the back on RELIANCE which has recorded more than 5% gains in the day so far. Technically 21,750 is a strong resistance for Nifty around which we expect the current rally to cool off. Supports are placed at 21,137 and 20,870 on the downside.

Sensex Today | Market at 3 PM

The Sensex was up 1,131.74 points or 1.60 percent at 71,832.41, and the Nifty was up 351.80 points or 1.65 percent at 21,704.40. About 1971 shares advanced, 1369 shares declined, and 102 shares unchanged. 

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Nomura View On HPCL

-Neutral, target price Rs 305
-Lower-than-anticipated results on lower marketing margins & higher opex
-Vizag bottom-upgradation to commence in H1FY25
-HRRL to commence from end-CY24
-Auto fuel price cuts key to watch out for
-Rising refining spreads mean room for price cuts has fallen sharply

Sensex Today | Manish Jain, Head - Fund Management, Centrum:

Indian equity markets rose sharply today on the back of great expectations from the upcoming budget and strong cue from other Asian markets. Private sector banks in particular have driven the market rally as DII's continue value picking at current levels.

We believe that the volatility will continue in the coming days as the results season unfolds. The market will also be keenly looking at the upcoming FED meet to see any change in body language, inflation expectations and rate cut cues.

Sensex Today | Latent View Q3 net profit down 11.3% at Rs 46.5 crore against Rs 52.4 crore, YoY.

GAIL Q3 net profit up 18.2% at Rs 2,843 crore versus Rs 2,405 crore, QoQ.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | GAIL releases Q3 earnings; Net profit at Rs2,843 cr Vs CNBC of Rs2,302 cr

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Markets views from Manish Jain, Head - Fund Management, Centrum

Indian equity markets rose sharply today on the back of great expectations from the upcoming budget and strong cue from other Asian markets. Private sector banks in particular have driven the market rally as DII's continue value picking at current levels. We believe that the volatility will continue in the coming days as the results season unfolds. The market will also be keenly looking at the upcoming FED meet to see any change in body language, inflation expectations and rate cut cues.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Adani Energy 3Q net profit Rs 325 crore; Revenue at Rs 3820 crore

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Voltamp Transformers Q3 earnings:

Net profit up 86.3% at Rs 95 crore versus Rs 51 crore and revenue up 14% at Rs 408.5 crore versus Rs 357.5 crore, YoY.

Stock Maket LIVE Updates | HSBC View On Rallis India

-Reduce call, target Rs 195 per share
-Q3 FY24 earnings lower than expected
-Domestic business shows resilience overshadowed by weakness in exports
-Efficient inventory & pricing management commendable
-High channel inventories in exports remain a headwind
-Valuations at 25x FY25E EPS expensive

Stock Market LIVE Updates | HSBC View On Cyient

-Buy call, target Rs 2,545 per share
-Revenue growth in-line with consensus expectations
-Communications vertical bottoming out was key positive
-Outlook for aerospace & sustainability continues to be promising
-Like stock for industry tailwinds in key verticals & improved execution

Sensex Today | Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities:

The latest breakout in the oil and gas index has propelled the sector into positive territory. The recent consolidation in the Nifty Oil and Gas index concluded with an upside breakout, indicating an increased optimism in the space that may persist in the coming days. 

Therefore, the sudden surge in energy stocks might continue to bolster the headline index in the short term.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Nitin Spinners Q3 Earnings:

Net profit jumped 1.3% at Rs 32 crore versus Rs 31.6 crore and revenue up 40% at Rs 750.4 crore versus Rs 537.2 crore, YoY.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Morgan Stanley View On Shriram Finance:

-Overweight call, target Rs 2,700 per share
-PPOP was 3 percent better than estimate on stronger AUM & NIM
-However, higher provisions drove a 4 percent PAT miss
-Note that slippages, while higher QoQ, were below estimate
-Higher provisions were thus towards strengthening coverage
-Think valuations & forecasts are undemanding

Sensex Today | BSE Bank index up 1 percent supported by IDFC First Bank, Bank of Baroda, Kotak Mahindra Bank:

Finance Ministry
FY25 real GDP growth seen closer to 7 percent
Inflation under control, fiscal deficit trending lower
Headline inflation expected to gradually decline

UltraTech Cement commissions 2.6 mtpa greenfield grinding capacity at Rajpura, Punjab

Stock Market LIVE Updates | AU Small Finance Bank Q3 profit declines 4% YoY to Rs 375 crore

AU Small Finance Bank has registered a 4% on-year decline in net profit at Rs 375 crore for quarter ended December FY24, impacted partly by sharp jump in provisions for bad loans.

Net interest income grew by 15% year-on-year to Rs 1,325 crore for the quarter, while other income jumped 52.5% YoY to Rs 449.7 crore and pre-provision operating profit grew by 18% to Rs 657 crore during the quarter. The asset quality weakened with the gross NPA rising 7 bps QoQ to 1.98% and net NPA up 8 bps to 0.68% for the quarter.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Morgan Stanley View On Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company:

-Equal-weight call, target Rs 1,240 per share
-1 percent PBT beat was driven by higher other income (+16 percent QoQ)
-NII missed estimate by 1 percent
-Operating expenses & provisions were higher
-Net slippages ratio rose QoQ, coverage declined
-See moderate upside risk to forecasts subject to sustainability of other income

Sensex Today | The Red Sea crisis impacted our revenue by 15% in Q3 & some impact will be felt in Q4, Aeroflex Industries told to CNBC-TV18.