Closing Bell: Sensex up 592 pts, Nifty above 25,100; realty, IT, banks shine

Market Close | Sensex up 592 pts, Nifty above 25,100

Indian equity indices ended on strong note with Nifty above 25,100 on October 14 amid buying across the sectors. At close, the Sensex was up 591.69 points or 0.73 percent at 81,973.05, and the Nifty was up 163.70 points or 0.66 percent at 25,128.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities

A sharp fall in crude oil prices provided a major impetus to the markets, as markets ended in positive territory led by gains in banking, IT and realty stocks. The recovery may not fuel strong bullish sentiment, as FIIs deserting Indian markets this month coupled with lingering West Asia conflict has created a lot of uncertainty among the investors.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

After showing a narrow range movement with weak bias in the last few sessions, Nifty shifted into a sustainable upside bounce on Monday and closed the day higher by 163 points. After opening with a positive note, the market surged up further in the early part of the session. It later shifted into a range bound action with positive bias in the mid to later part of the session.

A long bull candle was formed on the daily chart, which is indicating an attempt of upside breakout of smaller range movement. Having moved within a broader high low range of 25200-24700 levels in the last 3-4 sessions, Nifty has bounced back and is now placed near the upper range of 25200 levels.

A sustainable move above the upper range of 25200 levels could be considered as an upside breakout of the key hurdle and that could eventually pull Nifty towards the next resistance of 25500-25600 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 24900 levels.

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Aditya Gaggar Director of Progressive Shares

After an initial uptick in the morning trade, the index remained rangebound for the rest of the day and settled at 25,127.95, with gains of 163.70 points. Barring Media and Metal, all the other sectors ended in green with Realty being the top performer, followed by IT and BankNifty. Mid and Smallcaps also advanced but underperformed the Frontline Index.

A bullish Marubozu Open candlestick pattern was formed on the daily chart and breached its congestion zone and 50DMA hurdle; however, in the lower timeframe i.e. hourly chart, a convincing move above 25,200 will confirm the same. On the downside, the psychological level of 25,000 will work as immediate support and on the flip side, 25,160-25,200 will be considered a resistance zone.

Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

Nifty opened gap up and traded with a positive bias throughout the day to close with gains of ~164 points. On the daily charts we can observe that the Nifty has resumed its upmove towards 25500 after a brief three-day consolidation. Hourly momentum indicator has a positive crossover which is a buy signal. Thus, we expect the positive momentum to continue over the next few trading sessions towards 25234 – 25360. Support base shifts higher towards 24920.

Bank Nifty broke out of a three day consolidation on the upside and is now inching towards 52500 which coincides with the 20-day average. Support base shifts higher towards 51400 – 51500.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services

Global markets are showing mixed signals as China’s disinflation and weaker economic data suggest a potential further slowdown in global economic growth, already affected by rising geopolitical tensions.

Furthermore, the positive impact of the Chinese stimulus package seems to be diminishing. Meanwhile, the Indian market is demonstrating resilience, with subdued Q2 earnings expectations seemingly priced in and oil prices declining. The IT and financial sectors are attracting buying interest after recent corrections.

Currency Check | Rupee closes marginally higher

Indian rupee ended marginally higher at 84.05 per dollar on Monday versus Friday's close of 84.07.

Market Close | Sensex up 592 pts, Nifty above 25,100; realty, IT, banks shine

Indian equity indices ended on strong note with Nifty above 25,100 on October 14 amid buying across the sectors.

At close, the Sensex was up 591.69 points or 0.73 percent at 81,973.05, and the Nifty was up 163.70 points or 0.66 percent at 25,128. About 1952 shares advanced, 1919 shares declined, and 140 shares unchanged.

Wipro, Tech Mahindra, HDFC Life, L&T, HDFC Bank were among the top gainers on the Nifty, while losers were ONGC, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance and Adani Enterprises.

Except metal and media, all other sectoral indices ended in the green with Information Technology, Bank, Realty up 1 percent each.

The BSE midcap index was up 0.3 percent and smallcap index ended flat.

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#1 Q2 handling volume growth was 6 percent (Exim 4 percent & domestic 14 percent)

#2 This was below Q2FY25 growth estimate of 7 percent (Exim 5 percent and domestic 20 percent)

#3 Q1FY25 growth was 6 percent (Exim 4 percent and domestic 15 percent)

#4 CCRI had previously guided for F25 Exim & domestic growth to be 15 percent & 25 percent, respectively

#5 A 2H growth requirement of 26 percent in Exim & 35 percent in domestic segment will thus meet annual guidance

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#1 Q2 revenue (+9 percent YoY) & EBITDA (+68 percent YoY; +2 percent QoQ) missed estimate by 2 percent/6 percent respectively

#2 PAT was ahead by 27 percent on higher other income

#3 Paid campaign net adds at +7,000 (1 percent QoQ/7 percent YoY)

#4 Realisations growth at +2 percent YoY were both at the slowest pace since Q1FY23

#5 On upside, user traffic - key to sustained campaigns and realizations growth

#6 User traffic recovered sharply to 15 percent YoY (1Q: 6 percent YoY)

#7 Rise estimates, as traffic growth recovery sets stage for better monetisation in subsequent quarter

#8 Will watch for sustenance in trends before potentially turning more constructive

#9 EBITDA estimates are up 10 percent/13 percent/13 percent vs earlier for FY25/26

Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

Indian Rupee is trading nearly flat today recovering from morning lows. Rupee touched a fresh record low earlier in the day on strong US Dollar and elevated crude oil prices. However, strong domestic markets supported Rupee at lower levels. Dollar remained strong on sticky inflation and PPI data.

We expect Rupee to trade with a negative bias on FII outflows and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Overall strength in the US Dollar may further pressurise the Rupee. However, positive tone in the domestic markets may support the Rupee at lower levels.

Traders may take cues from retail sales and housing data from the US this week. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.90 to Rs 84.30.

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Amar Ambani, Executive Director, YES Securities

What we’re experiencing presently in the stock market is a long overdue correction. And it is not unusual to even see 20% corrections within large bull markets. But looking at the market structure, we expect an immediate floor for Nifty at 24,700 and a long term support of 23,500.

Even before the benchmark began to correct, we already witnessed deep corrections in segments like Defence, PSUs, etc. Specifically, 41% of stocks in the Small Cap for 250 index and 56% of small and micro-cap stocks have declined by over 20% from their 52-week highs, with around 19% of micro-cap stocks seeing drops exceeding 50%.

Even after this deep correction, we still see a lot of midcaps and small caps devoid of any valuation comfort to invest in them. For the next few months, we will see downfalls in those stocks where valuations are 30-40x and promoter comfort is not high. Having said that, quality names with high business visibility and reasonable valuations will continue to deliver over 1-2 year period. Large caps may take preference for a few months. A gradual out-performance from the BFSI is expected, we remain bullish on insurance stocks; BOB and HDFC Bank from the banking space.

The bull market is very much intact. For now, China’s monetary stimulus seems to have made its markets more appealing than India due to lower valuations. However, China faces deeper structural challenges that monetary and likely fiscal stimulus alone cannot resolve. In contrast, India has a stronger macroeconomic profile, which is unlikely to divert investment flows away from it. India’s weight in MSCI has been rising over the years and now stands at 2nd highest place in the EM basket.

We analysed the broad ratio of MSCI China and MSCI India over several years and found that China has had multiple short-term recovery moves, which lasted approximately two months before resuming the downtrend. Therefore, we believe that the current China trade is a tactical one, and not a long term one.

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Shivani Nyati, Head of Wealth, Swastika Investmart

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While the company's financial performance was robust in FY23, the election year in FY24 led to a slowdown in revenue and profit growth.

The IPO's valuation was reasonable, but investors should carefully consider the cyclical nature of the industry and the potential impact of market volatility on the company's performance. A flat or negative listing is a possibility, and investors should be prepared for short-term losses.

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#2 Gross margin was 30 bps below estimate

#3 PAT was notably below estimate with higher-than-expected employee costs

#4 Cut FY25-FY27 estimate 13-15 percent to reflect slower sales & higher overhead costs

#5 While company’s management called out increased competition from ecommerce as a challenge in Q2

#6 Believe company is making appropriate pivot to private labels

#7 Pivot to private labels will place it well to meet future competition

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