Short call | Trump's 'liquid gold' gambit: can he really call the shots in global oil; Hindalco, LT Foods in focus

Analysts at Citi warned that Trump's policies could bring mixed results

Once, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that if you control oil, you can control nations. It seems that US President elect-Donald Trump took that advice to heart, declaring in characteristic style that the US had more "liquid gold"—oil and gas—than any other country. This bold proclamation was enough to send tremors through oil markets, with analysts projecting Brent crude to slip further toward $60 per barrel amid looming trade tariff concerns.

"Leave the oil to me," Trump announced after his sweeping electoral victory. "More than Saudi Arabia, more than Russia. Bobby [Kennedy Junior], stay out of the liquid gold. Other than that, go have a good time,” he quipped. “We’re going to be paying down debt. We’re going to reduce taxes. China doesn’t have what we have."

For Trump, oil isn't just a resource—it is a leverage. And his talk of tariffs and sanctions was a clear message to global oil markets.

Analysts at Citi warned that Trump's policies could bring mixed results, potentially bruising economies that rely on oil imports, like Europe and China, while also dialing back global oil demand growth. Citi’s forecasts already hint at oil demand growing by a modest 0.9 million barrels per day, but Trump’s protectionist stance could send that number sliding.

"Trump’s term could weigh heavily on oil prices until 2025," analysts projected, suggesting that Brent could average $60 per barrel due to trade tariffs and boosted domestic oil production.

At the same time, Trump promised sanctions on oil from Iran and Venezuela, a move that could shrink the global supply and offer a short-term lift to prices.

With the US now the world’s largest oil producer—pumping out 22 percent of the global supply and Saudi Arabia trailing at 11 percent—Trump’s stance on domestic energy production and his penchant for tariffs position him as a central force in the global oil landscape.

If he can truly call the shots in the months ahead, Trump’s "liquid gold" gambit may well reshape global energy markets and turn resource control into a powerful geopolitical tool.

Hindalco Industries (Rs 648, -8.4%)

Shares tumbled after its US-based subsidiary Novelis Inc reported a fall in net income for the July-September quarter.

Bull Case: The Bay Minette project, to be commissioned in the second half of 2026, could potentially yield $1,000 EBITDA per ton due to favorable pricing agreements and enhanced cost efficiencies. Novelis's long-term outlook remains strong due to the Bay Minette project's steady progress, solid demand in end markets, and expected growth in the interest-sensitive speciality segment.

Bear Case: Novelis's H2FY25 earnings outlook seems clouded as management withdrew EBITDA per ton guidance (previously set at USD 525/t), citing tight scrap spreads due to China's accelerated scrap purchases. With ongoing capex of $4.9 billion, capital expenditures is expected to peak in FY26, increasing Novelis’s debt levels.

LT Foods (Rs 390, -1.5%)

Motilal Oswal initiated coverage on the firm with a buy tag, seeing a 36% upside.

Bull Case: With a significant presence in over 80 countries, LT Foods achieved a 15% revenue CAGR over FY19-24. It focuses on expanding margins while maintaining a strong market share globally. In the Indian rice segment, it has a market share of ~30% in India and ~50% in the US.

Bear Case: The brokerage said any climate risk for rice production and volatility in rice prices is a key negative. Further a competitive business environment and geopolitical and foreign currency risks can impact the firm.

(with inputs from Zoya and Neeshita)