Closing Bell: Nifty ends around 17,450, Sensex rises 449 pts; all sectors in the green

Kunal Shah, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Bank Nifty remained positive throughout the day following a consolidation breakout on the daily chart. During the day, it moved closer to the 14 DMA.

The momentum oscillator RSI is in bullish crossover. A double bottom formation on the daily RSI is likely to provide positive momentum in the space. On the higher end, it may move towards 41,000. On the lower end, support is placed at 40,400.

Ajit Mishra, VP - Technical Research, Religare Broking

Markets started the March month on a positive note and gained nearly a percent, taking a breather after the recent fall. After the initial uptick, the Nifty index traded in a narrow range for most of the session but buying in select heavyweights kept the tone positive.

On the sectoral front, recovery in the IT and metal pack combined with continued resilience in banking played a crucial role. Besides, recovery on the broader front further added to the buoyancy.

We expect the rebound to extend further but the existence of a hurdle around 17,600 in Nifty might cap the upside. We reiterate our view to focus on identifying trading opportunities based on sectoral trends while keeping a check on leveraged trades. In absence of any major domestic event, global cues would continue to induce volatility in between.

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

The Nifty opened on a positive note today and continued to inch higher throughout the day to close with gains of 147 points. We believe that Nifty is oversold and the pullback can continue over the next few trading sessions.

On the hourly charts Nifty has broken out of a falling channel which suggests that the Nifty is in a counter trend pullback. The positive crossover on the hourly momentum indicator is in sync with the price action.

The pullback if any is likely to be just a relief rally and thus we change our outlook on the Nifty to sideways.

The range of consolidation is likely to be 17,700 – 17,200. In terms of levels, 17,340 – 17,300 shall act as a crucial support zone while 17,550 – 17,600 is the immediate hurdle zone for Nifty.

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head - Research & Outreach, ICRA

The sequential dip in the GST collections in February 2023 is partly on account of the boost to the January figure from the quarter-ending inflows (for the month of December, which were remitted in the following month). Interestingly, there is a large divergence in the growth of the revenues from import of goods of 6% and that from domestic transactions of 15% in February 2023.

The GST revenues from imports of goods are likely to have been dampened by the sequential and YoY contraction in merchandise imports in January 2023.

We expect the FY2023 RE for CGST collections to be met. However, there could be some shortfall in direct taxes relative to the FY2023 RE.

Manish Jeloka, Co-head of Products & Solutions, Sanctum Wealth

In the month of January, the FII outflows were partially attributed to diversion of funds towards China which was going through its re-opening, and it appeared that the FII selling was coming to an end as the selling stabilized in February.

In February 2nd week did see some inflows, however, the recent hawkishness by the US Fed on back of strong non-farm payroll numbers along with sequential acceleration in CPI inflation has led to markets pricing in increased probability of peak rates of 6%.

With US rates expected to stay higher for longer given the resilient US economy, we expect a risk off environment globally which may lead to continued selling by FIIs, at least till next set of macro data prints from the US.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities

Markets witnessed a relief rally after 8 sessions of losses, as broad-based buying on the back of short covering and uptick in European and select Asian indices aided the sentiment.

The recovery was expected as the market had witnessed relentless selling over the past week or so due to weak global cues and slowdown concerns.

A promising reversal formation and strong bullish candle is indicating further uptrend in the near future.

For the traders, 17,350 would act as a sacrosanct support zone and above the same the positive momentum is likely to continue till 17,525-17,600. On the other side, below 17,350 uptrend would be vulnerable.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services

The Indian market was oversold and needed encouraging domestic triggers to show signs of revival. The manufacturing PMI reported was better than predicted at 55.3, even though India's Q3 FY23 GDP statistics came in slightly below expectations at 4.4%.

Solid global markets, bolstered by strong Chinese manufacturing data, also ignited optimism in the domestic market.

Rupee Close:

Indian rupee ended higher by 16 paise at 82.50 per dollar against previous close of 82.66.

Market Close:

Indian benchmark indices ended on positive note on March 1 with Nifty around 17,450.

At close, the Sensex was up 448.96 points or 0.76% at 59,411.08, and the Nifty was up 146.90 points or 0.85% at 17,450.90. About 2396 shares have advanced, 1009 shares declined, and 129 shares are unchanged.

Adani Enterprises, Hindalco Industries, UPL, SBI and Axis Bank were among the biggest gainers on the Nifty. On the other hand, Britannia Industries, Power Grid Corporation, Cipla, BPCL and SBI Life Insurance lost the most.

All the sectoral indices ended in the green with metal, bank,PSU Bank, oil & gas, information technology, capital goods, power and realty up 1-2 percent.

BSE midcap and smallcap indices rose 1 percent each.

S Ranganathan, Head of Research at LKP securities

Benchmark Indices finally tasted a tinge of Green in today's trade on the back of monthly automotive volume numbers and healthy GST collections in a shorter month. Even as the street reacted to the third quarter GDP numbers today, markets seem to look forward towards the 5 percent GDP during Q4.

Today's session however surely witnessed investor interest in several PSU banking stocks which had corrected quite meaningfully.

SML Isuzu February Auto Sales

Total sales were up 33% at 953 units versus 714 units, YoY.

Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities

Gold prices traded up on Wednesday, with spot gold prices at Comex were trading higher by 0.35% at USD 1833 per ounce. Gold April future contract at MCX were trading higher by 0.13% at Rs 55831 per 10 grams by noon session.

Gold prices short term trend reversed after weaker than estimated U.S. consumer confidence data on Tuesday. US Consumer confidence unexpectedly index dropped to 102.9 in February from 106.0 in January. However, in February month gold prices fell by 5.28% and posted biggest monthly declined since June 2021 on back of stronger US Dollar and fear that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep raising interest rates at aggressive pace.

Money markets expect the U.S. Federal Reserve's target rate to peak at 5.425% in September, following a string of strong economic data. We expect gold prices should trade with positive bias and prices relief rally will likely to extend $1845 per ounce on today’s session. Comex Spot Gold having resistances at $1845/$1860 per ounce and supports at $1819/$1805 per ounce. MCX Gold April future has resistance at Rs 56010 per 10 grams and supports place at Rs 55300 per 10 grams.

Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.11% on upbeat macroeconomic data from India. India’s manufacturing PMI expanded to 55.3 in February topping forecast of 54.3. Positive domestic markets and a soft Dollar also supported Rupee. Dollar declined amid improved risk sentiments in Asian and European markets. However, sustained FII outflows, disappointing Q3 GDP data and rising fiscal deficit capped sharp gains.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on concerns over slowdown in India’s GDP growth rate and expectations that Dollar may recover in hawkish Fed expectations. However, rise in risk appetite in global markets may support Rupee at lower levels.

Any intervention by the Reserve Bank of India may also support Rupee. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82 to Rs 83.

Welspun Corp gets contract for 83,000 MT bare pipes

Welspun Corp has been awarded a prestigious contract for export of LSAW Pipes and Bends to the Middle East which will be executed from its facilities in Anjar, India in FY 23-24.

The contract is for approximately 83,000 MT bare pipes with an option of coating exercisable by the project owner subsequently.

TVS Motor sales at 2.76 lakh units in February 2023

TVS Motor Company registered sales of 2,76,150 units in the month of February 2023 as against 281,714 units in the month of February 2022.

Total two-wheelers registered sales of 267,026 units in the month of February 2023 as against 267,625 units in the month of February 2022. Domestic two-wheeler registered growth of 28% with sales increasing from 173,198 units in February 2022 to 221,402 units in February 2023.

UBS View On Federal Bank 

-Neutral rating, target at Rs 155 per share
-Management optimistic on key business drivers; reaffirm NIM & RoA guidance
-Improved granularity in wholesale book

BSE Smallcap index up 1 percent led by Indo Amines, Rupa and Company, BGR Energy

Market

Benchmark indices were trading higher with Nifty around 17450.

The Sensex was up 490.05 points or 0.83% at 59,452.17, and the Nifty was up 156.50 points or 0.90% at 17,460.50. About 2309 shares have advanced, 942 shares declined, and 107 shares are unchanged.

NMDC Production and Sales Data for February 2023

BSE Smallcap index up 1 percent led by Indo Amines, Rupa and Company, BGR Energy

Eicher Motors February sales

Total VECV sales up 24.5% at 7,289 units against 5,856 units, YoY.

Eicher Motors was quoting at Rs 3,130.85, up Rs 26.25, or 0.85 percent.

Morgan Stanley View On Banks 

-Bank stocks were down 0.6 percent in February versus a decline of 1.2 percent for Sensex
-YTD bankex is down 7 percent versus 4 percent for Sensex due to large conglomerate exposure concerns
-Stay overweight on banks with access to retail deposits
-Not pricing in upcoming growth cycle, prefer ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Bank Of India & Federal Bank

Mohammed Imran, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

WTI crude is holding gains for second consecutive session to trade up by 0.7% at 77.60 during the start of European session, following 2% gains of Tuesday. China records best expansion of its factory activities since April 2012 as the composite PMI came in at 56.4, which has reinfused optimism in the industrial commodities.

Elsewhere US inventories forecast showed yet another build-up week for crude reserves by 6.2 million barrels, however the Russian threats of output cuts and export reduction to west has offset the fear of rising inventories for the day so far. The economic data from US were mixed with decline in consumer sentiments and Chicago business barometer, which may keep dollar index sideways.

The disappointing ISM numbers from US could cut short the rally, which is holding up on back of strong Chinese economic data. The demand from US and Europe lags while Asian demand remains robust.

Oil rally may find difficult to sustain, if data from US disappointing the streets along with a larger build in EIA weekly inventories, could curtail the bullishness. We advise to short the rally as USD 80 hold strong resistance zone. We can see prices falling back to USD 75.

February GST collections up 12 percent at 1.49 lakh crore

Bharat Electronics signs frame supply agreement with Thales Reliance Defence Systems

Bharat Electronics at Aero India 2023, has signed a frame supply agreement with Thales Reliance Defence Systems (TRDS), Nagpur, for the manufacture and supply of TR modules, radar LRUs (line replaceable units) and micro modules.

Bharat Electronics was quoting at Rs 96.84, up Rs 2.19, or 2.31 percent.

European Markets Updates

Atul Auto February auto sales: Total sales jumped 56% at 2,125 units against 1,365 units (YoY)

PNB withdraws divestment process of Canara HSBC Life Insurance

PNB in an exchange filing said that on account of recent IRDAI notification dated December 5, 2022 on IRDAI Regulations, 2022, the Board of Directors of the Bank in its meeting held on February 28, 2023, accorded approval for withdrawal of the process for divestment of Bank's stake in Canara HSBC Life Insurance Co. Ltd. The Bank shall hold its stake in the Company as an investor, subject to regulatory approvals. At 14:21 hrs Punjab National Bank was quoting at Rs 49.82, up Rs 1.47, or 3.04 percent on BSE. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 49.99 and an intraday low of Rs 48.21.

GR Infraprojects bags project worth Rs 758.1 crore

Mahindra & Mahindra February auto sales

Total sales at 58,801 units, up 8% against 54,500 units (YoY). Total 3-wheelers sales (including EV) was up 40% at 5,350 units against 3,812 units (YoY). Domestic passenger vehicle sales rose 10% at 30,358 units against 27,663 units (YoY). Total exports went down 20% at 2,250 units against 2,814 units (YoY).

Total tractor sales rose 26% at 25,791 units against 20,437 units (YoY). Domestic sales rose 30% at 24,619 units against 18,910 units (YoY). Total exports was down 23% at 1,172 units against 1,527 units (YoY).

Market update at 2 PM

Sensex was up 381.01 points or 0.65% at 59,343.13, and the Nifty was up 120.30 points or 0.70% at 17,424.30.

Tata Motors February sales

Tata Motors sales in the domestic & international market for February 2023 stood at 79,705 units, compared to 77,733 units during February 2022.

Domestic sale of MH&ICV in February 2023, including trucks and buses, stood at 17,282 units, compared to 14,596 units in February 2022.

Total sales for MH&ICV domestic & international business in February 2023, including trucks and buses, stood at 17,928 units compared to 16,306 units in February 2022.

Prabhudas Lilladher view on Federal Bank

Federal Bank at its Analyst Day reiterated that earnings consistency and profitability would remain focus areas. Key levers for RoA expansion would be to (i) maintain pristine asset quality (ii) consistently grow business with digital focus (iii) enhance share of higher NIM lending segments by leveraging fintech partnerships (iv) increase fee to assets (add 10bps every year) and (v) improve efficiency. For next 3 years, company is targeting to double higher yielding segments that contribute 20.53% to loans, compared to overall loan growth guidance of high teens.

Share of these segments would rise to 25% suggesting ~15bps NIM improvement, over steady state level of 3.35%.

If bank achieves its revenue related targets, core earnings for FY24/25E could see a 10-15% upgrade leading to FY25E RoA of 1.4% (vs 1.2% now). Our FY24/25E earnings estimates remain unchanged.

Prabhudas Lilladher maintain multiple at 1.5x FY25E ABV and target price at Rs 175; current valuation at 1.1x is attractive. Retain buy.

BSE Smallcap

IRCTC partners with HDFC Bank to launch co-branded travel credit card

Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation Ltd (IRCTC) and HDFC Bank announced a partnership to launch one of India’s most rewarding co-branded travel credit cards. Known as the IRCTC HDFC Bank Credit Card, the newly launched co-branded card is in a single variant and is available exclusively on NPCI’s Rupay network.

Ashok Leyland's total sales up 27% at 18,571 units versus 14,657 units, YoY.

Lupin Diagnostics expands presence in South India with laboratory in Hyderabad

Lupin announced today the launch of its new Regional Reference Laboratory in Hyderabad, Telangana. This expansion of Lupin Diagnostics’ network is part of the company’s strategy to build and strengthen its presence in South India.

This regional reference laboratory adds to Lupin Diagnostics’ existing network of 380+ LupiMitra collection centers and 23 laboratories across India, company said in its release.

Lupin was quoting at Rs 656.40, down Rs 2.80, or 0.42 percent.

Anil Rego, founder and fund manager at Right Horizons 

India has a stable demand for steel and excluding China, the demand for steel across geographies is weak. Though steel prices have increased since 2023, coking coal prices have also increased by US$80/t, neutralising the overall effect. China’s economy reopening has been the beacon of hope; while the real estate market is signalling improvement, clarity on stimulus measures in China post the Chinese New Year and their impact on the overall steel demand is what we are looking forward to. We have a neutral stance on metal stocks since in India, the spreads post-Jan-23 are declining and unless we see a significant rise in global steel prices, Indian steel prices cannot rise and may impact the profitability in 4Q FY23.

BSE 500

MC A10 Index - a sentimeter of Adani Group stocks - spikes over 8 percent thanks to all round buying in the Group stocks.

Market at 1 PM

Benchmark indices were trading higher with Nifty above 17,400.

At 13:00 IST, the Sensex was up 381.98 points or 0.65% at 59,344.10, and the Nifty was up 117.40 points or 0.68% at 17,421.40. About 2288 shares have advanced, 900 shares declined, and 101 shares are unchanged.

Maruti Suzuki sells 1,72,321 units in February 2023

Maruti Suzuki India Limited sold a total of 172,321 units in February 2023. Total sales in the month include domestic sales of 150,823 units, sales to other OEM of 4,291 units and exports of 17,207 units.

Maruti Suzuki India was quoting at Rs 8,762.55, up Rs 136.75, or 1.59 percent.

LT Foods allots 2.74 crore shares to SALIC International Investment Company

LT Foods has allotted 2.74 crore equity shares to SALIC International Investment Company. The board also approved an appointment of Alrumaih Sulaiman Abdulrahman S as an additional director of the company.

LT Foods was quoting at Rs 98.46, up Rs 1.66, or 1.71 percent.

NTPC completes transfer of 15 renewable energy assets to arm NTPC Green Energy

NTPC has completed transfer of its 15 renewable energy assets to subsidiary NTPC Green Energy, and 100% equity shareholding held in NTPC Renewable Energy, to NTPC Green Energy through a share purchase agreement.

NTPC was quoting at Rs 171.60, up Rs 1.05, or 0.62 percent.

Ahluwalia Contracts secures order worth Rs 169 crore from IFTAS

Ahluwalia Contracts (India) has secured an order for construction of civil & structural works for data centre complex at Bhubaneswar, Orissa, awarded by Indian Financial Technologies and Allied Services (IFTAS) worth of Rs 169 crore approximately.

The order inflow during the FY 2022-23 stands at Rs 4,333.63 crore till date.

Adani Enterprises arm gets Letter of Intent

Adani Enterprises' subsidiary Mundra Aluminium is declared as preferred bidder and subsequently received a Letter of Intent from Odisha Government, for Kutrumali bauxite block in Odisha.

Prabhudas Lilladher View on Cipla

Broking house cut its FY24E and FY25E EPS estimates by ~8% each, given Cipla’s key facilities (Goa and Indore) stuck in FDA issues leading to delay in new launches like gAdvair in US.

FDA recently highlighted eight observations in the 483 letters issued to Cipla’s Pithampur (Indore) unit. Few observations raised are critical in nature and time consuming to resolve. However, these issues are unlikely to escalate import alert and thereby have limited impact on existing business.

Despite earnings cut, Prabhudas Lilladher believe Cipla’s risk-reward is favorable at current levels. It expect 14% EPS CAGR over FY23-25E given the recent correction in stock price.

At CMP, stock is trading at 18x FY25E EPS. Recommend buy with revised target price of Rs 1,070/share (Rs 1,280 earlier), based on 22x FY25E EPS.

Cipla was quoting at Rs 898.20, down Rs 7.85, or 0.87 percent on the BSE.

Zydus Lifesciences receives USFDA nod

Zydus Lifesciences has received approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) for Apixaban tablets which blocks the activity of certain clotting substances in the blood. The drug will be manufactured in formulation manufacturing facility at Moraiya, Ahmedabad.

Apixaban tablets had annual sales of USD 18,876 mn in United States. Further, the company has also received approval from USFDA for Olmesartan Medoxomil and hydrochlorothiazide tablets, which is used to treat high blood pressure (hypertension).

The drug will be manufactured at formulation manufacturing facility in Ahmedabad SEZ, and had annual sales of USD 41.7 million in the US.

Zydus Lifesciences was quoting at Rs 470.30, up Rs 4.75, or 1.02 percent on the BSE.