Closing Bell: Nifty at 17,700, Sensex down 520 pts; IT worst hit, PSU banks rally

Ajit Mishra, VP - Technical Research, Religare Broking

Markets started the week on a subdued note and lost over half a percent, taking a breather after a recent surge. Pressure in the IT majors, especially Infosys, was weighing on the sentiment in early trades however resilience in banking and FMCG majors combined rebound in the energy pack helped the index to recoup some losses. Consequently, Nifty settled at 17,706.85; down by 0.68%. Meanwhile, the broader indices outperformed the benchmark and ended in the green.

We expect consolidation in the index after 3 weeks of successive rise, so participants should focus more on sector/stock selection. Besides, managing risk, especially in overnight positions, holds the key, citing an uptick in volatility during the earnings season. Participants should plan their positions accordingly.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

Nifty remained under the bears' grip as the benchmark slipped following a hanging man pattern formation in the previous session. Besides, the recent rally found resistance around the 50% retracement level of the previous fall before closing with a bearish engulfing pattern.

Over the near term, the trend is likely to remain sideways, as after a rally of 900 points, buyers at 17000 would want to take some profits. On the lower end, support lies at 17550, below which the index may fall towards 17400. On the higher end, 17800 is likely to remain resistance for the Nifty.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities

The much anticipated profit-taking came to the fore as technology stocks led the correction that saw the Sensex slump below the psychological 60,000 mark. The real damage was done by the frontline IT stocks with Infosys coming under severe hammering after its corporate earnings failed to meet street estimates.

Besides disappointing results, worries of weak IT spending by multinational giants on gloomy economic conditions and recessionary fears have weighed heavily on the sector over the past few months.

On the daily charts, the Nifty has formed a bar-reversal candlestick formation indicating time-based correction till the market is not crossing 17,870 levels. For the bulls, 17,800-17,870 would act as immediate resistance zones, while 17,600-17,500 would act as key support zones. Fresh buying momentum could be seen only above the levels of 17,870.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services

The market responded negatively to the weak start of the earnings season by IT bellwether and their cautious outlook. On the global front, the US 10-year bond yield rose as solid US job data raised concerns over further rate hikes by the Fed.

The earnings reports, primarily from the IT and banking sectors, will influence market trends in the coming days. We expect Nifty 50 earnings to grow by 10percentin Q4 FY23, driven by banking and finance, auto, telecom, and FMCG.

Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities:

The Indian rupee started the week on a sour note after a long weekend amid a rebound in the dollar index and risk-off sentiments. However, the day trading range remained small in the absence of fresh cues.

There is a relief at factory gate inflation as the wholesale inflation reading came at 1.34percentbelow the 1.6 percentestimates and 3.85percentthe previous month.

Spot USDINR is hovering around 82 amid the central bank’s intervention and dollar buying from the importers.

Technically, the pair has support at 81.70 and resistance at 82.50.

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas: 

The Nifty has finally closed negative today after nine consecutive positive trading sessions. On the daily charts we can observe that Nifty has faced resistance at 17,850 – 17.870 which coincides with the 50 percentfibonbacci retracement level (17,858) of the fall from 18,888 – 16,828.

During the second half of the trading session the Nifty witnessed a recovery which helped it to close off its intraday lows (17,574). The daily momentum indicator still has a positive crossover which is a buy signal.

We believe that the uptrend is still intact, and this dip should be used as a buying opportunity. In terms of levels, 17,860 – 17,900 is the immediate hurdle one, while 17,560 – 17,500 shall act as a crucial support from short term perspective. On the upside we expect the Nifty to target level of 18,000.

Rupee Close:

Indian rupee closed 12 paise lower at 81.97 per dollar against Thursday's close of 81.85.

Market Close: 

Indian benchmark indices ended lower on April 17 with Nifty around 17,700.

At close, the Sensex was down 520.25 points or 0.86 percentat 59,910.75, and the Nifty was down 121.20 points or 0.68percentat 17,706.80. About 1,747 shares advanced, 1.739 shares declined, and 180 shares were unchanged.

Infosys, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, NTPC and Larsen and Toubro were among major losers on the Nifty, while gainers included Nestle India, Power Grid Corporation, SBI, Britannia Industries and
Coal India.

On the sectoral front, the information technology index fell 4.7 percent and pharma index down 0.6 percent, while PSU Bank index up 3 percent and oil & gas, realty, FMCG indices rose 1 percent each.

The BSE midcap index added 0.5 percent, while smallcap index up 0.15 percent.

Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities.  

Gold prices marginally gained on Monday, with spot gold prices at Comex were trading up by 0.06percentat $2,007 per ounce. Gold June future contract at MCX were trading up by 0.30percentat Rs 60,510 per 10 grams by noon session.

Comex spot gold prices hovered around physiological level $2,000.0 per ounce with positive bias after Friday’s fall. Gold prices witnessed sharp correction on Friday after US near-term inflation expectations jumped in early April by the most in nearly two years, according to the preliminary April reading from the University of Michigan. The inflation data fueled bets the Federal Reserve may carry on with aggressive monetary tightening and US dollar and yields rose in response, while traders cut long position and sell off witnessed in yellow metal post data. Today’s recovery in yellow metals due to bargain hunter active near support level.

We expect gold prices should consolidate in range and selling pressure will likely to see at higher level. For the week Comex spot gold having supports at $ 1,980/1,945 per ounce and resistance at $2,033/$2,050 per ounce. MCX Gold June future having support at Rs 59,680 per 10 gram and resistance at Rs 61,200 per 10 grams.

JPMorgan View on Infosys

JPMorgan has downgraded Infosys to an ‘underweight’ rating and has cut its target price from Rs 1,500 to Rs 1,200 per share. Broking house feels that uninspiring commentary and ambitious guidance post sharp miss, triggering a reappraisal. As a result, it has cut revenue by 4-5 percent and margin by 70 bps, driving 8-9 percent EPS cuts over FY24/25.

JPMorgan also notes that the FY24 guidance of 4-7 percent CC revenue growth and 20-22 percent margin is below their consensus. The guidance bakes in an ambitious ask rate of 1.6-2.7 percent CQGR, which appears uncharacteristically H2FY24 heavy. The company is prone to subsequent downgrades.

Mohammed Imran, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:

Crude oil recorded fourth straight weekly gains to finish above $82 last week supported by the strong Chinese import data showing 22.5 percentannual jump in March to the highest monthly volumes in nearly three years, since June 2020.

On the other hand, in US Gasoline and diesel inventories have declined recently and Gasoline inventories are much lower than last year's level, ahead of the summer driving season may support gasoline cracks.

The market remains in backwardation as OPEC+ decision to cut voluntary production around 1.6mbpd from May is likely see to global balance falling into deficit of around 1 mbpd from June onwards. The overall outlook is bullish, positive Chinese economic numbers may further set oil prices for resistance of $85, while support stay around $79.

Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:

Indian Rupee depreciated on Monday on strong US Dollar and weak domestic equities. However, easing crude oil prices cushioned the downside. India’s WPI fell to a 29-month low at 1.34percentin March 2023 topping forecast of 1.87 percentand previous month’s reading of 3.85 percent, compared to IMF. Dollar rebounded from a one-year low on Friday on upbeat economic data from US and hawkish Fedspeak. Fed official Christopher Waller said that inflation remains too high.

We expect Indian Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on strong Dollar and elevated crude oil prices. Weak domestic markets may also weigh on Rupee. However, sustained FII inflows and cooling inflation may support Rupee at lower levels. Traders may remain cautious ahead of Empire State Manufacturing Index data from US. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 81.50 to Rs 82.50 in the near term.

Ambit View on Infosys

Ambit has given Infosys a ‘sell’ rating and has cut its target price from Rs 1,505 to Rs 1,340 per share. Growth, margin, and guidance being materially below broking firm expectations. The US verticals have seen declines, but Ambit believes that the FY24 guidance of 4-7 percent growth implies a 1.7-2.9 percent CQGR over Q1-Q4.

The broking house has moderated its CC (constant currency) revenue growth to 5/7.3 percent in FY24/25 from 7.1/7.7 percent. Additionally, Ambit has cut its FY25 EPS estimates by 5 percent.

Infosys touched a 52-week low of Rs 1,219 and was quoting at Rs 1,258.25, down Rs 130.35, or 9.39 percent on the BSE.

Bank of Baroda to consider raising foreign currency fund via issuance of bonds

A meeting of board of directors of Bank of Baroda is scheduled to be held on 21.04.2023 to consider and approve the raising of foreign currency fund through issuance of Bonds and / or Certificate of Deposits and / or other borrowings.

Bank Of Baroda was quoting at Rs 175.70, up Rs 4.40, or 2.57 percent on the BSE.

Market at 3 PM

Benchmark indices were trading lower with Nifty around 17,700.

The Sensex was down 584.24 points or 0.97 percentat 59,846.76, and the Nifty was down 141.80 points or 0.80percentat 17,686.20. About 1,605 shares advanced, 1,732 shares declined, and 137 shares were unchanged.

BSE Midcap index up 0.4 percent supported by Union Bank of India, Aditya Birla Capital, Indian Overseas Bank

Infosys Large Trade | 94.30 lakh shares (0.13% equity) worth Rs 1,173.24 crore change hands at an average of Rs 1,250 per share, reported CNBC-TV18.

Infosys was quoting at Rs 1,254.75, down Rs 133.85, or 9.64 percent.

Mira-Bhayandar Municipal Corp awards a tender to Krsnaa Diagnostics

Mira-Bhayandar Municipal Corporation, Thane, Maharashtra has awarded a tender to Krsnaa Diagnostics to provide diagnostics services (Both Radiology and Pathology) to serve the patients falling under the jurisdiction of Mira-Bhayandar Municipal Corporation on Public Private Partnership (PPP) basis.

Krsnaa Diagnostics was quoting at Rs 493.50, down Rs 2.70, or 0.54 percent on the BSE.

BoFA Securities View on Infosys

BoFA Securities has given Infosys a ‘neutral’ rating and has cut its target price to Rs 1,390 per share. The brokerage house cut its FY24/25 EPS estimates by 2 percent/3 percent.

The Q4 was an uncharacteristically large under-shoot. The dip in margin and under-shoot to the FY24 revenue and margin guidance follows from the topline miss in the quarter.

Anand Birje resigns as Digital Business Head of HCL Technologies

Anand Birje has resigned as Head of Digital Business Services of HCL Technologies to pursue another opportunity. Anand will continue to serve as Head of Digital Business Services till May 5, 2023.

Mitsubishi Electric to set up manufacturing plant at origins by Mahindra, Chennai

Mahindra Industrial Park Chennai Limited (MIPCL), a joint venture between Mahindra World City Developers Limited and Sumitomo Corporation of Japan, marks yet another significant milestone by signing Mitsubishi Electric India Private.

Recognised as the world leader in electric and electronic equipment manufacturing, Mitsubishi Electric will set up a plant to manufacture air-conditioners and compressors spread across 52 acres at Origins by Mahindra, Chennai.

Mahindra Lifespace Developers was quoting at Rs 364.05, down Rs 4.90, or 1.33 percent on the BSE.

Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist

The fall in WPI inflation to a 29-month low of 1.3 percent in March has been supported by the high base of the previous year.It is important to note that the manufactured products category has witnessed a deflation for the first time in about three years supported by lower textile and metals prices. However, there has been uptick in food prices, somewhat offsetting the lower prices for fuel and power and manufactured products.

The downtrend is expected to continue, with the WPI inflation remaining below 1percentfor the next three months, given the favourable base. Some uptick can be seen Q2 onwards as the support from favourable base fades but the monthly WPI inflation is still expected to remain below 5percentin absence of any major turnaround in global crude oil and commodity prices. For FY24, we expect WPI inflation to average around 2.6 percent, lower than the estimated average retail inflation at 5.1 percent.

Avalon Tech to list on exchanges on April 18

Nestle India gains 4% ahead of record date for dividend

Nestle India's stock rose by 4.6 percent on the BSE despite the overall weak market performance. This was in anticipation of the company's record date for a dividend of Rs 102 per share, which is scheduled for Friday, April 21.

This small-cap stock zooms 16% after ace investor Vijay Kedia picks up stake

Shares of Precision Camshafts surged around 16 percent on April 17 after the latest shareholding data at the end of the March quarter revealed that ace investor Vijay Kedia has picked up a stake in the small-cap company.

As per the company's latest shareholding data on BSE, Kedia owns 10 lakh shares or a 1.05 percent stake in the company. A publicly listed company is required to disclose the identities of individual investors who hold a stake of 1 percent or more in accordance with shareholding regulations.(More)

Market at 2 PM

The Sensex was down 579.95 points or 0.96 percentat 59,851.05, and the Nifty was down 144.70 points or 0.81percentat 17,683.30. About 1,569 shares advanced, 1,741 shares declined, and 137 shares were unchanged.

Morgan Stanley View on Infosys

The broking house has been given an 'overweight' rating to the stock, but slashed the target price to Rs 1,475 per share from Rs 1,625 per share. The report notes a negative surprise in Q4FY23 results and weak order book, which implies a less conservative revenue outlook asa key concern.

The report also highlights that the lowering of the lower band of margin outlook for FY24 is another key concern for the company. Morgan Stanley alsoexpects a potential correction in the stock, in-line with the ADR reaction of a9-10 percent fall.

However, the report notes that the QoQ growth rate performance is expected to be better for Infosys than TCS in Q1FY24. The report also expects the P/E discount to normalize through the year.

Infosys was quoting at Rs 1,249.90, down Rs 138.70, or 9.99 percent.

CLSA View on HDFC Bank

According to a CLSA report, the bank's NII was in line, but PPoP was a miss due to operating expenses (opex). However, the report said credit costs are expected to offset high opex in FY24. The report also notes that deposits and loan mix were positive from Q4.

There was a high opex growth and asset quality provides a cushion to the bank's profit and loss (P&L).

HDFC Bank was quoting at Rs 1,666.35, down Rs 26.95, or 1.59 percent on the BSE.

Vedanta inks pact with 20 S. Korea companies for display glass arm: Bloomberg

Vedanta was quoting at Rs 278, up Rs 2.30, or 0.83 percent.

Mohit Ralhan - Chief Executive Officer, TIW Capital

The sharp decline in WPI inflation to 1.34 percent in March from 3.85percentin February is an extremely significant event, more sosince it is across the board. The negative inflation in vegetable prices and manufactured products indicates aneasing of retail inflation as well in the coming quarter. The negative inflation of 23.53percentcrude petroleum is also a big positive.

RBI still may need to look for stabilization of WPI inflation at these levels and more importantly a reduction in the CPI index before taking the decision to pivot its policy stance. The US Fed is also appearing to be towards the end of its interest rate increase cycle and therefore the probability of a policy pivot in 2023 has gone up.

With economic growth still looking on track, the reduction in inflation increases the headroom for policy maneuvering quite significantly and keeps India in its position amongst the global growth leaders.

Gokul Agro Resources' Whole Time Director Ashutosh Bhambhani resigns

Ashutosh Bhambhani has resigned as Whole Time Director of Gokul Agro Resources with effect from April 13. Bhambhani has resigned due to personal reasons.

Gokul Agro Resources was quoting at Rs 112.05, down Rs 1.55, or 1.36 percent on the BSE.

Kotak Institutional Equities View on Infosys

The research firm has given a 'buy' rating for the stock, but the target price has been cut to Rs 1,470 per share from Rs 1,700 per share. The report notes a cut in revenue growth and margin estimates, leading to a 6-7 percent cut to FY24-25 EPS estimates.

The report also mentions that Infosys' QoQ revenue decline due to aggressive cuts to discretionary programs. The general slowdown in tech spends on account of macro pressure and uncertainty and one-time revenue impact of nearly 1 percent from project cancellations.

The report expects muted Q1FY24 performance, but growth recovery in H2FY24, led by large/mega deal revenue.

Infosys touched a 52-week low of Rs 1,219 and quoting at Rs 1,248, down Rs 140.60, or 10.13 percent on the BSE.

Nifty PSU Bank index added 2 percent supported by Punjab & Sind Bank, UCO Bank, Central Bank of India

UBS View on HDFC Bank

The broking firm has maintained a “buy” rating, with a target price of Rs 1,900 a share. The report notes that HDFC Bank's Q4 results were in-line and it was getting ready for a merger.

However, the report mentions that some metrics were in-line, while lower treasury, higher operating expenses, and provisions led to a PAT miss. The report also highlights strong retail deposits and a decline in slippages, while the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) continues to fall.

The bank’s management expects stable NIMs and a higher cost-to-income (CI) ratio in FY24. The merger is expected to complete by July 2023, according to management.

The report notes that the peaking of the interest rate cycle and a fall in incremental system LDR could be a positive for the bank.

HDFC Bank touched a 52-week high of Rs 1,715.85 and quoting at Rs 1,665.10, down Rs 28.20, or 1.67 percent on the BSE.

Vivanta Industries bags work orders worth $5 million

Vivanta Industries has received work orders worth $5 million for establishing the electrical vehicle charging & manufacturing unit in Delaware, USA. The plant will be established in 18-24 months & the software will be developed in 6-12 months from the date of receipt of order (Memorandum of Understanding). The company is expecting to reach sales worth approximately $10 million and above after establishing the project.

Long Buildup seen in the following stocks

Short Buildup seen in the following stocks

Market at 1 PM

Benchmark indices erased some of their intraday losses but were still trading lower with Nifty around 17,700.

The Sensex was down 647.47 points or 1.07 percentat 59,783.53, and the Nifty was down 160.00 points or 0.90percentat 17,668. About 1,543 shares advanced, 1,730 shares declined, and 134 shares were unchanged.

Camlin Fine Sciences rallies 14% as promoter, Infinity Holdings launch open offer

Camlin Fine Sciences stock soared 14 percent on April 17 after Infinity Holdings and promoter Ashish Dandekar launched an open offer for an additional 26 percent stake in the specialty chemicals firm at Rs 160 a share, implying a premium of over 5 percent to previous close.

Infinity Holdings along with its subsidiaries held 23 percent stake, while Dandekar held 9.44 percent stake in the company, as of December 2022.

Post the open offer, Infinity Holdings along with Dandekar will together hold 9.55 crore equity shares representing 55.76 percent of the voting share capital of Camlin Fine Sciences, the company told exchanges.

Alternative asset management firm RockstudCapital will launch its core equitystrategy calledRockstudCapital Yuva Bharat, an open-ended concentrated PMS Portfolio with a focus on the mid and small cap stocks.

“The fund aims to invest in companies based on the theme of India’s GDP growth contributing to rising middle-class income, consumption, and digital wave,” mentioned the press release.

Abhishek Agarwal, Founder and Managing Partner ofRockstudCapital, said, “The Indian economy is on the cusp of a unique growth story and the number of wealthy Indians is on the ascent. This makes PMS business an inevitable opportunity for us to add to our business lines.”

Bosch director Filiz Albrecht resigns

Filiz Albrecht has resigned as Non-Executive Non-Independent Director of Bosch, with effect from April 15.

Bosch was quoting at Rs 18,960.70, up Rs 54.55, or 0.29 percent on the BSE.

BSE FMCG index up 1 percent led by Bombay Burmah, Gujarat Ambuja Exports, Nestle India

Dilip Buildcon incorporates new SPV companies

Dilip Buildcon has incorporated two new SPV companies as a wholly owned subsidiary - Bengaluru-Vijayawada Expressway Package-1 Limited and Bengaluru-Vijayawada Expressway Package-4 Limited for development of six-lane access controlled greenfield highway from Kodur to Vanavolu (worth Rs 599.5 crore), and from Odulapalle to Nallacheruvu-palli (worth Rs 774.1 crore) Bengaluru – Vijayawada Economic Corridor on HAM Mode under Bharatmala Pariyojana Phase-I in Andhra Pradesh (Package 1 and Package 4).

Dilip Buildcon was quoting at Rs 179.45, up Rs 1.20, or 0.67 percent on the BSE.

Va Tech Vabag to sell 100% stake in Switzerland arm

The board of directors of Va Tech Vabag had granted approval for sale of 100% stake in Wabag Switzerland.

Pursuant to the approval of the Board of Directors, the said share transfer process for sale of shares and related formalities between VA Tech Wabag GmbH, Austria and HFS Aqua Holding AG, Switzerland has been completed on April 12, 2023.

Wabag Wassertechnik AG, Switzerland was incorporated under the laws of Switzerland on December 09, 2004 and is held by VA Tech Wabag GmbH, Austria, step down subsidiary of VA Tech Wabag Limited.