Sensex, Nifty set for muted open as trade deal worries linger; key levels to track on July 30

The India VIX cooled off by 4.46 percent, settling at 11.52 — staying well below the psychological level of 13.

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex are likely to open on a subdued note as sentiment takes a hit following US President Donald Trump’s threat of steeper tariffs on Indian goods, with uncertainty over a trade deal continuing to linger. Meanwhile, investors will keep a close watch on the US Fed’s policy meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged.

At about 7:55 am, the GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,794, lower by 0.2 percent or 31 points.

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Dalal Street bounced back on Tuesday, July 29, as broad-based buying lifted all sectors into the green. Benchmark indices rose around half a percent, snapping a three-day losing streak amid bargain hunting.Further, volatility and fear in the markets continued to moderate, with the India VIX index slipping over four percent to 11.54.

Here are the key levels to watch out for in today's session

Nifty’s strong short-covering rally and close above 24,800 signal a tentative short-term bottom, but a decisive move above 24,850 is crucial for sustained upside momentum. However, as the index trades below the key moving-average cluster near 25,000 — which also acts as a psychological barrier — sellers may continue to dominate on higher levels. Until Nifty reclaims and holds above the 25,000 mark, the broader bias will remain cautious, and rallies could be used to initiate fresh shorts rather than interpreted as a structural reversal. With key events like the FOMC meeting and monthly expiry ahead, the index may witness volatile swings in both directions.

"The index has successfully held its critical demand zone between 55,500 and 55,800, suggesting that a short-term floor may have been established at these levels. However, it continues to hover below the crucial resistance zone of 56,500–56,800, which needs to be cleared for the rally to gain traction," Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities said. "Structurally, the index remains below its short-term moving averages — the 10-DEMA and 20-DEMA — both currently positioned between 56,600 and 56,800, forming a confluence of resistance that is capping the upside. The index remains caught in a broad consolidation band, and only a breakout on either side will dictate a stronger directional bias," he added.

The India VIX cooled off by 4.46 percent, settling at 11.52 — staying well below the psychological level of 13. This low-volatility environment implies that while there is intraday profit booking, there's no panic-driven liquidation, reinforcing the view of a range-bound market rather than a full-fledged breakdown.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has moved marginally higher from 0.59 to 0.60, indicating some buildup in calls that may continue to act as overhead resistance rather than signalling bullish strength.

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