Markets open with winners and losers in focus as Iran risk redraws the playbook

Early signals suggest traders are preparing for a rotation rather than a blanket risk-off move.

When markets open, investors will not be debating geopolitics. They will be pricing outcomes.

The escalation involving the US and Iran is already being filtered through a familiar market lens — who benefits from higher energy prices, who pays the price, and where capital seeks shelter. Early signals suggest traders are preparing for a rotation rather than a blanket risk-off move.

The playbook is not new. The reference point is.

Commodity exporters bid, importers under pressure

Drawing parallels with the market response after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance and former chief FX strategist at Goldman Sachs, said markets tend to move quickly to separate winners from losers when oil risks rise.

In the months following the Ukraine invasion, commodity-exporting currencies such as the Brazilian real, Mexican peso and Chilean peso outperformed sharply as oil and metals prices surged. Brooks expects a similar pattern to emerge now.

Oil exporters are likely to see inflows, while large energy importers — including India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey — face pressure, as higher crude prices feed into trade balances, inflation and currency sentiment.

Trade exposure adds another layer of risk

Beyond energy, markets are also scanning trade linkages.

While Iran itself is a relatively small economy, data on its import partners shows Turkey, China, the UAE, the European Union and India as key exporters to the country. Brooks noted that such exposure, even at the margin, can influence currency and equity positioning during periods of geopolitical stress.

Turkey, in particular, stands out — combining energy import dependence with trade exposure, making it vulnerable if tensions linger.

Oil at $100 no longer a tail risk

The oil market remains the central transmission channel.

A note from RBC Capital Markets said regional leaders have warned Washington that $100-a-barrel oil is now a “clear and present danger”, especially given limited spare capacity within OPEC.

RBC cautioned that while brief flare-ups often lead to temporary price spikes, a prolonged escalation — particularly if Iran applies economic pressure rather than direct military action — could keep prices elevated for longer.

If that happens, the issue shifts from volatility to durability.

LNG flows emerge as the hidden fault line

Beyond crude, gas markets are drawing increasing attention.

RBC flagged that around 20% of global LNG flows pass through the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping activity has already slowed sharply. Asian buyers — including India, China, Japan and South Korea — are now scrambling to assess alternative supply routes and spot cargo availability.

The brokerage warned this could become the biggest disruption to global gas markets since the Ukraine war if flows are materially affected, adding another layer of risk for energy-importing economies.

Gold and safe havens back in demand

Geopolitical risk is also reviving the “debasement trade”.

Brooks said precious metals typically respond to two forces — fiscal stress and geopolitical uncertainty — and the current environment has both. Past episodes, including tariff shocks in 2025 and earlier geopolitical standoffs, triggered sharp moves in gold.

With fresh uncertainty around energy supply and global stability, safe-haven assets and select currencies are likely to remain bid, even if broader equity markets struggle for direction.

Rotation, not panic

The broader takeaway for markets is measured, not alarmist.

This is not yet a full-blown risk-off episode. But it is a repricing phase, where capital is moving selectively — toward commodity exporters, energy producers and safe havens, and away from oil-dependent economies and sectors.

As Brooks put it, markets may not know how this ends — but they already know how to trade it.