India’s Gold ETF inflows slow to $379 million in November, down 55% MoM

Asia (excluding India) collected $3.1 billion, down from $6.1 billion in October.

India’s gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted net inflows of $379 million in November, a sharp 55 percent drop from the previous month, yet the country continued its streak of consistent buying with six straight months of inflows.

Except for March and May, every month of 2025 has seen steady investor interest in gold ETFs. So far this year, inflows have surged to a record $3.43 billion — the highest ever for a single calendar year — pushing assets under management to $12.2 billion. This compares with $1.29 billion in 2024, $310 million in 2023 and just $33 million in 2022.

The moderation in flows was not unique to India. Global buying also cooled noticeably. North America recorded inflows of $1.1 billion in November, an 83 percent drop from $6.5 billion in October. Europe saw inflows of $1 billion, reversing outflows of $4.4 billion a month earlier. Asia (excluding India) collected $3.1 billion, down from $6.1 billion in October.

Analysts say flows were subdued relative to the record buying seen in recent months, reflecting mixed signals shaping investor sentiment. Early in November, waning expectations of a December Fed rate cut — following resilient US economic data and hawkish Fed minutes — tempered enthusiasm for gold. A brief easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly as peace talks in Ukraine showed progress, also softened safe-haven demand.

Additionally, volatility in equity markets appears to have driven some local investors to book profits in gold ETFs, using the category’s strong year-to-date gains and ample liquidity to offset losses elsewhere, further limiting November’s net inflows.

China, however, stood out as a major outlier. The country saw a massive $2.2 billion rush into gold ETFs in November as equity market weakness, a rebound in gold prices and persistent geopolitical unease spurred investment demand. Analysts say China’s newly announced VAT reform also boosted flows, prompting jewellery buyers with investment motives to shift toward gold ETFs to avoid additional tax burdens.

The World Gold Council, in its latest outlook for 2026, said the year ahead will be shaped by persistent geoeconomic uncertainty, with the gold price likely to mirror prevailing macroeconomic expectations. If current conditions hold, the metal may remain largely rangebound. Yet, drawing from the pattern of repeated surprises in the past year, the Council cautions that 2026 could once again defy consensus.

If global economic growth softens and interest rates continue to decline, gold could post moderate gains. A more severe downturn — marked by heightened global risks — would be even more supportive, potentially driving a strong performance. On the other hand, a successful rollout of economic and geopolitical policies under the Trump administration could accelerate US growth, ease global risk perceptions, and push interest rates and the dollar higher, a combination that would weigh on gold prices.

The Council added that secondary factors such as central bank purchases and gold recycling trends could also influence the market. But it emphasised that gold’s primary role — as a portfolio diversifier and a reliable source of stability — will remain crucial as financial markets continue to grapple with volatility.