Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, founder of Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services expects Samvat 2082 to be a stronger year for the equity markets.
"While the global equity space is expected to stays stable, I expect Indian equities to play a catch up sooner or late despite immediate headwinds," he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.
According to him, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank are at the start of their new bull run.
Milan picks three stocks - Bharti Airtel, Oberoi Realty, and Swiggy - for Muhurat Trading scheduled on October 21.
What is your trading strategy for the Nifty 50 on Muhurat Trading day?
Generally, I just put some token trades on the Mahurat trading session. The reason is purely technical and rational behind this. We buy on Mahurat trading session as a token; it just has religious, sentimental, and more symbolic in nature.
Otherwise, rationally speaking, the session is a short 45-minute trading session. This will always have very low retail and nil institutional participation. The volumes would obviously be less than a full-fledged session and tend to be of useless analytical value. Also, Mahurat session is always followed by a holiday.
So, generally, besides putting a symbolic token trades, we do not deploy any major directional move in the markets on that day.
Which three stocks would you recommend buying during Muhurat Trading, and why?
This stock has been one of the strongest relative outperformers against the broader markets. Presently, it has achieved a multi-month breakout. It enjoys strong relative strength and could be bought at current levels with a projected upside of 15 percent from current levels over the coming months.
This realty stock has shown strong signs of resumption of its upmove. It has formed a strong base following bullish divergence of its lead indicators against the price. One can include this in the portfolio with a projected upsides of 17 percent from its current levels.
This is the new-age stock which is likely to do well. The stock has been forming a large base on the higher timeframe charts. This too qualifies as a medium-term portfolio inclusion with a projected upside of over 20 percent from its current levels. It continues to demonstrate stable and rising Relative Strength.
Do you believe Samvat 2082 could be a stronger year for the benchmark Nifty 50, with a projected 10–15 percent upside compared to around 5% in the previous Samvat year?
Yes, I expect Samvat 2082 to be a stronger year. This year, despite being just few percentage points below its high point, Nifty has been one of the worst underperforming equity indices in the world.
The global equity gains have stayed largely narrow and concentrated around and contributed by mega caps and large caps. While no major trend reversal signals are seen, it is very likely that the equity gains may broaden its base and may now be supported by broader markets as well.
While the global equity space is expected to stay stable, I expect Indian equities to play a catch up sooner or late despite immediate headwinds.
From a technical perspective, can new-age stocks emerge as star performers in Samvat 2082?
I cannot say this in a blanket manner. However, many new age stocks like Eternal, Swiggy, and Paytm may demonstrate strong relative strength against the broader markets over the coming months.
Do you believe HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank are at the beginning of a new bull run?
The straight answer to this would be YES. However, it is important to note that HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank does not have similar technical structure on the charts. HDFC Bank has rebounded off the support area and is moving towards its high and may see a breakout above Rs 1,025 level that could lead the stock to fresh lifetime highs.
ICICI Bank, on the other hand, has broken out from a corrective retracement which was in the form of a falling channel. This breakout from a falling channel may propel the stock higher from its current levels.
Which sector do you expect to outperform in the new Samvat, and which one is likely to underperform?
Realty Sector
I expect realty sector to outperform in the new Samvat. Despite being placed inside the lagging quadrant, the Nifty Realty Index is demonstrating strong improvement in its Relative Momentum against the broader markets. Also, it is farthest from the centerpoint on the RRG (Relative Rotation Graph); this levels the sector with the potential of generating greater alpha as compared to the other sectors.
Media
I expect media sector to relatively underperform the broader markets. The Nifty Media Index is in a structurally bad technical shape. It not only remains in a multi-month corrective trend, but also stays below major moving averages. Above all, it also does not show even feeble signs of bottoming out or putting a base in place. This space is likely to relatively underperform over the coming months.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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