The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) on April 9 unanimously decided to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 percent, while changing the policy stance from neutral to accommodative. The central bank also announced a cut in its full-year growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5 percent due to a tariff-led uncertainty in the global economy.
This is the second consecutive repo rate cut, considering that the inflation has moved below target.
With expectations of durable softening in food inflation, fall in crude oil prices, and assuming a normal monsoon, the RBI has lowered its inflation forecast to 4 percent for FY26, from 4.2 percent earlier. The Reserve Bank also reduced its estimates for Q1FY26 to 3.6 percent (from 4.5 percent) and Q2FY26 to 3.9 percent (from 4 percent).
In February, the CPI inflation eased to 7-month low of 3.61 percent.
However, "the rapidly evolving situation requires continuous monitoring and assessment of the economic outlook," the central bank noted. It believes headwinds from global trade disruptions continue to pose downward risks with worries over merchandise exports, though domestic demand and supply situation remains strong.
Hence, the central bank has reduced its FY26 as well as Q1FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.5 percent from 6.7 percent earlier. According to experts, the rate cut was on expected lines but change in stance was unexpected. They see more rate cuts in the coming policy meetings.
"The accommodative stance is a positive signal to the industry. The RBI has cautiously outlined a strong growth path by maintaining the expected GDP growth rate at 6.5 percent. Inflation continues to moderate with oil prices lowering and food inflation sharply reducing, paving the way for further cuts," Vineet Agrawal, co - founder at Jiraaf said.
He expects the RBI to further cut rates by additional 50-75 bps in the remaining calendar year. Amidst global uncertainty, RBI is taking strong measures to protect growth and counterbalancing uncertainty, he Agrawal said.
The market traded lower after the announcement of the RBI policy, likely due to profit booking as most of the announcements, barring change in policy stance, are in line with expectations, while the volatility remained on the higher side due to tariff-led uncertainty. The Nifty 50 fell 113 points to 22,423 and the Bank Nifty declined 379 points to 50,132 amid volatility, at 12:08 hours IST.
"While the domestic economy remains resilient on many fronts, the external environment is anything but predictable—and policy navigation will need to remain flexible and responsive. Going ahead, markets are expected to remain volatile till the tariff-related dust settles," Apurva Sheth, head of market perspectives & research at Samco Securities said.
The India VIX, the fear gauge, increased by 3.5 percent to 21.16 levels, making the bulls more cautious.
Moneycontrol collated a list of top 9 rate sensitive stocks from experts with short term perspective. The stock price of April 8 is considered for the calculation of returns:
Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking
Bajaj Finserv | CMP: Rs 1,903.2
Bajaj Finserv is maintaining an upward trajectory within a rising parallel channel on the daily timeframe. The stock has been forming a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, indicating sustained bullish sentiment. This structure suggests continued strength, with the price respecting both channel boundaries. Recently, the stock bounced from the lower range of the channel, signaling a potential continuation of the trend.
Technically, Bajaj Finserv has rebounded from its medium-term EMA (50-day) and has moved above its short-term EMA (20-day). This indicates that short-term buying interest is gaining strength, adding to the positive sentiment. On the price action front, a continuation within the channel could push the stock toward the next significant resistance level around Rs 2,100, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel and previous supply zones. The increasing momentum and moving average alignment provide further confidence in the potential upmove. Considering the technical setup, buying Bajaj Finserv at the current market price (CMP) is recommended, with a stop-loss at Rs 1,815 to manage downside risk. This setup offers a favourable risk-reward ratio, targeting Rs 2,100 in the near term, assuming the trend remains intact and supported by market momentum.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 2,100
Stop-Loss: Rs 1,815
Bank of Baroda | CMP: Rs 235.84
Bank of Baroda recently staged a strong reversal after a breakdown from a wide consolidation range. The stock found support at lower levels, leading to notable buying interest and a sharp recovery. This recovery has taken shape into a rounding bottom pattern on the daily timeframe—a bullish reversal pattern that signals a shift from weakness to strength.
The stock is now approaching a crucial level, with a potential breakout above Rs 242 likely to trigger the next phase of upside. A successful and sustained move above this resistance zone could open the path for a rally toward the next key target at Rs 265, aligning with previous swing highs and pattern projections. Momentum indicators support this bullish setup.
Technically, Bank of Baroda has rebounded from its short-term and medium-term EMAs and has successfully surpassed its long-term EMA (200-day). This alignment of moving averages typically points to a shift in the trend's direction and adds conviction to the bullish scenario. Considering the overall setup, buying Bank of Baroda at the CMP is advisable, with a stop-loss placed at Rs 221 to manage downside risk. A breakout above Rs 242 will confirm the pattern and set the stage for an upside move toward Rs 265, offering a favourable risk-reward opportunity.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 265
Stop-Loss: Rs 221
Bajaj Finance | CMP: Rs 8,822.25
Bajaj Finance is maintaining its position within a long-term uptrend. After a strong rally, the stock has entered a consolidation phase near higher levels, which is often seen as a healthy pause before the next leg up. Importantly, within this range, the stock has been forming higher lows, indicating underlying strength and sustained buying interest.
The current price structure is showing signs of preparation for an upward breakout, with bullish momentum building steadily. A decisive move above the key Rs 9,000 mark could act as a trigger for the next rally, potentially pushing the stock toward the upside target of Rs 9,700. This level aligns with the upper boundary of the price projection based on previous moves.
From a moving average perspective, Bajaj Finance has bounced from its medium-term EMA (50-day) and has also surpassed its short-term EMA (20-day). This alignment indicates growing bullish sentiment and adds weight to the expectation of a breakout. Given the strong technical foundation, buying Bajaj Finance at the CMP is advisable, with a stop-loss set at Rs 8,350 to limit downside risk. A breakout above Rs 9,000 could pave the way for a sustained rally toward Rs 9,700, offering an attractive risk-reward opportunity.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 9,700
Stop-Loss: Rs 8,350
Chandan Taparia, Head Derivatives & Technicals, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services
HDFC Bank | CMP: Rs 1,769.15
HDFC Bank is retesting its breakout from a consolidation zone and holding at the 50-day EMA support level. The stochastic indicator has exited its oversold zones, confirming positive sentiment.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 1,835
Stop-Loss: Rs 1,740
State Bank of India | CMP: Rs 768.6
State Bank of India has formed a pole-and-flag pattern on the daily scale, which is a bullish continuation indication. The ADX (Average Directional Index) line is rising, which confirms the strength of the trend.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 815
Stop-Loss: Rs 745
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at Samco Securities
Canara Bank | CMP: Rs 89.43
Canara Bank is trading above the 20 and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) but remains below the 100-day EMA. The daily RSI hovers around the 55-mark, indicating improving momentum. Additionally, the MACD is holding above the signal line, hinting at a potential positive crossover. The volume expansion alongside price stability near support further suggests accumulation at lower levels. The stock looks favourable for a "buy on dips" approach. Hence, based on the technical structure, one can initiate a long position at the CMP for a target price of Rs 98. The stop-loss can be kept at Rs 85.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 98
Stop-Loss: Rs 85
Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital
Manappuram Finance | CMP: Rs 229.06
Manappuram Finance has shown notable strength since December 2024, particularly on the weekly chart, where it has demonstrated a clear polarity shift—the July 2024 resistance zone (Rs 222–228) now acts as a strong support area. The stock is trading firmly above both the 12-week and 26-week EMAs, reinforcing the bullish trend. On the daily timeframe, the stock has exhibited a bullish mean reversion from the 26-day EMA, indicating renewed buying interest and increasing the probability of an upward continuation in the near term.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 258
Stop-Loss: Rs 217
Cholamandalam Financial Holdings | CMP: Rs 1,718.45
Cholamandalam Financial Holdings continues to exhibit a strong long-term bullish structure on the monthly timeframe, maintaining a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The stock is well-supported above the key 12-month and 26-month EMAs, reaffirming its bullish trend. On the weekly chart, the stock has shown renewed buying interest around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior uptrend from Rs 1,033 to Rs 2,154, signaling a potential resumption of the upward move. Despite prevailing market volatility, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remains in buy mode on the weekly scale, and the current week's price action reflects sustained momentum and strong relative strength, indicating underlying resilience.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 2,011
Stop-Loss: Rs 1,615
Shriram Finance | CMP: Rs 641.45
Shriram Finance continues to exhibit a robust price structure across higher timeframes, consistently sustaining its uptrend. Throughout this rising trend, dips have been bought near the 12-month EMA, reflecting a healthy bullish mean reversion and strong long-term momentum. On the weekly chart, the stock has formed a bullish candlestick pattern and attracted buying interest near the 26-week EMA. Additionally, the MACD remains in buy mode, signaling sustained momentum and supporting the case for further upside.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 738
Stop-Loss: Rs 608
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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