Dollar eases from 10-month high but on track for weekly gain

The dollar index tracks the unit against six other majors.

The dollar index eased from a 10-month high on Thursday but remained on track for a weekly gain, and investors stayed on guard for potential intervention in the yen as it holds near 11-month lows against the U.S. currency.

The dollar has jumped on expectations that the U.S. economy will remain more resilient to higher interest rates than other economies, after the Federal Reserve last week warned that it may hike rates further and is likely to hold them higher for longer.

"The dollar in this environment is benefiting from both higher yields but also more jittery risk sentiment," said Vassili Serebriakov, an FX strategist at UBS in New York. "Global yields are rising, but with the U.S. economy outperforming the U.S. dollar still looks attractive.'

U.S. benchmark 10-year yields hit 4.688% on Thursday, their highest since 2007.

The dollar index, which tracks the unit against six other majors, was down 0.41% on the day at 106.21, but is on track for an 11th straight week of gains, and just off its 10-month high of 106.84 hit on Wednesday.

The euro rebounded 0.51% on the day to $1.0554 on Thursday but was still not far from its January low of $1.0482, which if broken would be the lowest level since December.

"If that (January low) goes then we could go a bit closer to euro/dollar parity, but our base case scenario is that unless there’s another negative shock for Europe then that won’t be sustained," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

Hardman said the euro was weakening, partly because of the stronger dollar on the back of higher U.S. yields and also because of ”the cyclical divergence story: the U.S. economy has been more resilient while the European economy has been weaker.”

Data on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy maintained a fairly strong pace of growth in the second quarter at an unrevised 2.1% annualized rate.

A second report showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 204,000 for the week ended Sept. 23. Economists had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week.

Contracts to buy U.S. existing homes also fell more than expected in August, tumbling by the most in nearly a year as high mortgage rates erode affordability.

The U.S. Fed may be on the cusp of "something rare" by lowering inflation without a major blow to jobs and growth, and must be "extra careful" about relying too much on the history of past inflation fights in plotting further policy moves, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak later on Thursday.

The yen remains in focus as it trades near the 150 level, which is viewed as potentially spurring intervention from Japanese authorities.

"If it shoots beyond 150 there’s a chance that it could enter a speculative zone … They certainly don’t want to see it break out because that would mean they’d have to spend even more," said John Vail, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Thursday that Japan would not rule out any options if there was any excessive volatility in currency moves, warning against speculative yen moves amid the currency’s fall.

The dollar was last down 0.23% against the Japanese currency at 149.28 yen, easing from an 11-month high of 149.71 on Wednesday.

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Currency bid prices at 10:30AM (1430 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Dollar index 106.2100 106.6600 -0.41% 2.628% +106.7500 +106.1700

Euro/Dollar $1.0554 $1.0502 +0.51% -1.49% +$1.0559 +$1.0492

Dollar/Yen 149.2800 149.6300 -0.23% +13.86% +149.5600 +149.1550

Euro/Yen 157.56 157.14 +0.27% +12.30% +157.5800 +156.7200

Dollar/Swiss 0.9162 0.9214 -0.56% -0.91% +0.9217 +0.9162

Sterling/Dollar $1.2196 $1.2135 +0.49% +0.84% +$1.2223 +$1.2120

Dollar/Canadian 1.3487 1.3499 -0.09% -0.46% +1.3514 +1.3477

Aussie/Dollar $0.6412 $0.6353 +0.97% -5.90% +$0.6415 +$0.6345

Euro/Swiss 0.9669 0.9674 -0.05% -2.28% +0.9685 +0.9660

Euro/Sterling 0.8651 0.8652 -0.01% -2.18% +0.8660 +0.8631

NZ $0.5959 $0.5923 +0.62% -6.15% +$0.5964 +$0.5915

Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway 10.7240 10.7690 -0.32% +9.38% +10.7700 +10.7140

Euro/Norway 11.3205 11.2945 +0.23% +7.88% +11.3332 +11.2598

Dollar/Sweden 10.9735 11.0631 -0.33% +5.44% +11.0715 +10.9709

Euro/Sweden 11.5830 11.6216 -0.33% +3.89% +11.6325 +11.5729