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India likely to become world's third-largest economy by 2029: SBI report

India's share in world GDP is now at 3.5 percent, as against 2.6 percent in 2014, and is likely to cross four percent in 2027

September 04, 2022 / 11:22 AM IST
Representative Image: Shutterstock

Representative Image: Shutterstock

India is likely to become the third-largest economy in the world by 2029 due to a major structural shift since 2014, according to a State Bank of India (SBI) research report.

The path taken by India since 2014 reveals the nation is likely to get the tag of the third-largest economy in 2029, a movement of seven places upwards since 2014 when India was ranked 10th, the report said.

The report highlighted that owing to looming uncertainties, a growth rate of 6-6.5 percent is the new normal in the global economy.

"India should surpass Germany in 2027 and most likely Japan by 2029 at the current rate of growth," the report said.

The paper noted that India's share in world GDP is now at 3.5 percent, as against 2.6 percent in 2014, and is likely to cross four percent in 2027, the current share of Germany in global GDP.

The report, authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economist at SBI, added that India is likely to be the beneficiary of the investment slowdown in China.

Broad-based growth of empowerment will also lift India's per person income and this could act as a force multiplier for a better tomorrow, the report said.

It further said that the current estimates might even undergo an upwards revision with the right policy perspective and realignment in global geopolitics.

The chief economist had recently revised downwards the full-year growth forecast to a low 6.8 percent from 7.5 percent earlier for FY23, citing "the way below GDP numbers for the first quarter".

India's Q1 growth numbers showed a consensus growth of 13.5 per cent, pulled down by the poor show of the manufacturing sector, which reported a paltry 4.8 per cent expansion in the first three months of FY23, negating the robust show by the services sector.

Ravi Prakash Kumar
Ravi Prakash Kumar is a Senior Sub-Editor at Moneycontrol. He has over five years of experience as a business journalist and has worked with leading financial dailies including ET, Mint, and Business Standard.
first published: Sep 4, 2022 11:18 am