Greenpanel Industries’ (GREENP) consol. revenue grew 17.5% YoY in Q2FY26 as MDF revenue rose 20.4% YoY and beat our expectation. Blended MDF volume grew 25.1% YoY (24.4 QoQ; 6-year CAGR of 12.5%) with a 30.5% YoY increase (on low base) in domestic volume (+26.8% QoQ; 6-year CAGR of 16.1%), reflecting the company’s focus on upping volumes, as per management’s new strategy. Reported MDF OPM fell 100bps YoY (+630bps QoQ) and appeared higher due to EPCG benefits (adj. OPM contracted 269bps YoY/636bps QoQ). Management now guides for higher teens YoY MDF volume growth and MDF OPM of higher single digit / lower double digit in FY26.
OutlookWe cut FY26E/FY27E EBITDA by 21.5%/6.8% and maintain HOLD with a rolled over unchanged Sep’26E TP of INR 266.
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