India's December quarter growth pegged at 7% by government nowcast model: Economic Survey

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India’s economy will likely grow 7 percent in the third quarter of FY26, Economic Survey noted pointing to the government’s internal nowcast model.

“Taken together across subsectors, national accounts data for the first half of FY26 and high-frequency indicators for Q3 indicate a continuation of the growth momentum during the year,” the Economic Survey noted.

The GDP nowcast is in line with the RBI projection of 7 percent growth for the December quarter. The government estimates the economy will grow 7.4 percent in FY26.

Moneycontrol Eco Pulse Index, a newly launched indicator to measure sequential momentum, showed that the economy grew more than average in December at 53.7, and the pace of change was faster during the month when compared with November at 53.5. A value of over 50 indicates stronger-than-average growth.

For FY27, the Economic Survey pegged the growth at 6.8-7.2 percent, continuing the country’s growth momentum.

“With domestic drivers playing a dominant role and macroeconomic stability well anchored, the balance of risks around growth remains broadly even. Taking these considerations together, the Economic Survey projects real GDP growth in FY27 in the range of 6.8 to 7.2 per cent,” the Economic Survey noted.

The Economic Survey is more optimistic than the IMF, which predicted 6.4 percent growth for FY27 and the World Bank, which has a projection of 6.5 percent for the coming year.