Why India has a long way to go before achieving the 2030 renewable capacity target

India will need to triple its capacity addition to reach 2030 target

India may have some distance to go before it achieves the target of 500 GW of installed capacity by 2030, as it would imply more than doubling the power output over next six years.

The ambition would require government to add nearly 50 GW capacity every year until 2030, almost thrice the annual capacity addition in the post Covid-19 era. Of this, 33.5 GW addition per annum would need to come through solar capacity. India’s solar power addition has averaged 13.9 GW in the post-Covid period, while wind energy addition has averaged 2.2GW per annum since FY22.

A Moneycontrol analysis of the data from last 10 years shows that solar capacity has expanded at a faster clip than the rest of renewable sources. Until September 30, solar capacity addition had reached 90.8 GW compared with 3.7 GW in 2015. Centre has a target of 292 GW of solar capacity by 2030.

On the other hand, installed wind capacity doubled to 47.4 GW from 23.4 GW in 2015. The target for wind capacity is 100 GW.

Moreover, the availability of solar power would need to move beyond a few states to achieve the target. Until FY23, 69 percent of the capacity came from just five states alone, where Rajasthan contributing to a quarter of India's solar energy requirement, followed by Gujarat and Karnataka having a 14 percent and 12 percent share, respectively.

The government would also need to consider the fact that the share of renewable energy in total electricity generation has remained at around 20% over last seven years, despite the installed capacity doubling during this period.