Go Fish: Trump tariffs may dent India’s booming marine exports, but China’s rising appetite offers relief

India's fishing industry is set to ride rough waves with Trump's tariffs

India’s marine fishing industry is bracing for rough waters as US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose over 50 percent tariffs on Indian goods threatens to hit one of India’s top 50 exports to Washington.

In 2024, India shipped nearly $2 billion worth of marine products to the United States—accounting for almost 80 percent of US shrimp and prawn imports. This makes it hard for the US to remove India from its shrimp cocktails entirely, but the financial sting of elevated tariffs is expected to weigh on an industry which has become a critical contributor to India’s agriculture exports and GDP.

According to the latest data for 2023–24, marine products matched inland fishing in terms of output share—marking a dramatic shift from a decade ago when marine fishing output was 41 percent lower. The marine segment now accounts for 4.4 percent of India’s total agricultural output, nearly double the 2.3 percent share it held ten years ago. This makes marine fishing more valuable than sugar, pulses, or even the combined value of condiments and spices within the farm economy.

Its economic importance has grown as well. Marine fishing contributed 0.6 percent to India’s GDP in 2023–24, up from 0.4 percent a decade ago.

The sector now finds itself exposed on both sides of the geopolitical chessboard. While the United States remains the dominant buyer of Indian marine products, China has quietly emerged as the second-largest market—displacing Southeast Asia. Chinese imports of Indian marine goods have jumped nearly tenfold between FY17 and FY25.

In FY25, India exported over $6 billion worth of marine products. The US accounted for 33 percent of this trade, while China absorbed 17 percent. For comparison, China’s share was just 2.4 percent in FY18. Despite these shifts, India’s overall marine exports have remained stable in the $6–7 billion range over the past several years.

India’s marine export boom has been largely powered by shrimp, prawn, crab and lobster shipments, which now make up 74 percent of total marine product exports. This figure rises to 96 percent for India’s exports to the US, most of which is tilted to shrimps and prawns, underscoring the country’s overdependence on a single commodity and a single market.

In contrast, China’s marine imports from India are relatively more diversified, with these categories accounting for about 70 percent of its total seafood purchases.

A 2022 NABARD report noted that only about a third of India’s marine catch is exported. T​he loss of a major buyer like the US—even partially—poses a serious risk.