Explained | How important is monsoon for India's agriculture sector?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already announced that the southwest monsoon will be delayed this year.

The IMD is the principal government agency responsible for meteorological observations and weather forecasting.

The monsoon’s onset over Kerala is now likely to take place only on June 3, the IMD said.

The normal date for its arrival over the Kerala coast is June 1.

The onset of monsoon in Kerala is important for the country’s economy and the agriculture sector, as it brings 77 per cent of annual rainfall.

Here is a look at how the timing and geographical spread of the monsoon are important for the country’s agriculture sector.

How significant is the timing of agriculture?

While the country receives around 116 centimetres (cm) of rain every year, the monsoon contributes to around 89 cm out of this. The South-West monsoon is considered vital for the cultivation of Kharif crops, which are heavily dependent on rain as the quantity of rainfall determines the production numbers in the case of these crops. The delay of monsoon is not considered unusual. In 2019 and 2020, the monsoon had hit the Kerala coast on June 8.

A few days' delay will not have any implication on the quantity of rain that the country gets every year. However, early showers are critical for farmers in terms of planting crops like cotton, rice, pulses, and soybean.

Crucially, it is closely linked to the economic growth of the country. The share of agriculture in GDP increased to around 20 per cent in 2020-21 from 18 per cent in 2019-20, which indicates the Indian economy’s higher dependency on agriculture. According to experts, good and timely rainfall will have a positive impact on agricultural production, which is likely to raise consumer demand. With the country reeling under the second wave of the pandemic, higher consumer demand may help keep inflation under balance.

How will the monsoon behave this year?

In a positive sign for the farming community, June to September rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which includes the rainfed agriculture regions in the country, are most likely to get above the normal rate of rain at around 106 percent of Long-Period-Average (LPA).

A Long Period Average is the rate of median rainfall that the country witnessed between 1961 to 2010, which was 88 cm. A year’s monsoon is in the normal range if the rainfall is between 96 per cent to 104 per cent of LPA. Hence a rate of 106 per cent of LPA is positive news for farmers in India.

In addition, the geographical distribution of rain is also critical as it will impact the country’s farm output. The monsoon is expected to cover the entire country by July 15. Based on IMD estimates this year, rains are likely to be equally distributed throughout the country, except in some parts of Northwest, East, Northeast India and the Southern Peninsula, which may receive below normal rains.

What is expected from the agriculture sector?

Based on advance estimates released by the government last week, the country’s food production (comprising wheat, rice, pulses and coarse cereals) is expected to rise 2.66 per cent to a new record of 305.43 million tonnes in the current crop year 2020-21, as compared to a food grain output of 297.5 million tonnes during the crop year 2019-20.

A crop year starts from July to June; hence it is believed that good and timely rain is vital for the timing of these crops. A major reason for the expected rise in output is owing to the good monsoon nationwide compared to last year.

According to the advance estimate, rice production is pegged at a record 121.46 million tonnes during the current crop year, as compared to 118.87 million tonnes in 2019-20.

Similarly, wheat production may also touch a record high of 108.75 million tonnes in 2020-21 from 107.86 million tonnes in the previous year.

The output of coarse cereals is expected to go up to 49.66 million tonnes, from 47.75 million tonnes a year ago.