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Economic Survey 2022| Crude oil pegged at $70-$75 a barrel, caution over inflation due to energy imports

In April-December 2021, inflation in ‘fuel and light’ and ‘transport and communication’ was mostly driven by high international crude oil, petroleum product prices, and higher taxes.

Mumbai / January 31, 2022 / 03:31 PM IST

The Economic Survey 2022 estimated India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate at 8.0-8.5 percent in 2022-23, which hinges on crude oil prices being in the range of $70-$75 a barrel.

India’s oil and gas import bill soared in the nine-month ended December in FY2022 as global crude oil prices inched up. Since December, the benchmark Brent crude futures have moved up further, breaching the $90 a barrel earlier this month. This is the highest level of crude prices since 2014; experts expect further upside.

Commenting on the GDP growth rate prediction, the Economic Survey said, “This projection is based on the assumption that there will be no further debilitating pandemic related economic disruption, monsoon will be normal, withdrawal of global liquidity by major central banks will be broadly orderly, oil prices will be in the range of $70-$75/bbl, and global supply chain disruptions will steadily ease over the course of the year.”