Reliance Industries Ltd is expected to report a steady performance in the December quarter, supported by a recovery in its oil-to-chemicals business and sustained growth in its telecom and retail segments. These gains are likely to offset weakness in its oil and gas exploration and production business.
Brokerages estimate mid-single-digit to low-double-digit growth in revenue and operating profit from a year earlier, with net profit seen rising modestly amid mixed performance across business segments.
The median of six brokerage estimates shows that RIL’s Q3 FY26 consolidated revenue for the fiscal third quarter is estimated to be Rs 2.54 lakh crore, implying growth of about 6 percent from the year-ago period. EBITDA -- earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation -- is seen rising 10 percent to around Rs 47,900 crore. Profit after tax is expected to rise 4 percent from a year earlier to Rs 19,200 crore.
Estimates vary widely across brokerages, reflecting differing assumptions on refining margins, petrochemical spreads and the pace of recovery in consumer businesses. While some brokerages expect double-digit growth in EBITDA and profit, others see a more muted outcome. Profit growth estimates range from flat to mid-teens from a year earlier.
The O2C business is expected to be a key driver of RIL’s quarterly performance. Higher Singapore gross refining margins during the quarter and improved refinery throughput are likely to boost refining earnings, even as petrochemical spreads remain relatively soft.
ICICI Securities expects the downstream and consumer segments to lead RIL’s earnings momentum. ‘Retail, RJio, O2C [are expected] to drive earnings growth YoY’, with stronger refining margins supporting O2C performance, the brokerage said.
Brokerage notes to clients said that improved refining economics should more than offset weaker petrochemical spreads, resulting in a year-on-year improvement in overall O2C profitability.
RIL’s consumer-facing businesses are expected to continue providing stability to consolidated earnings. Reliance Jio’s performance is likely to be supported by higher average revenue per user (ARPU) and subscriber additions, translating into steady growth in operating profit.
Yes Securities expects RIL’s consumer businesses to remain resilient, with the brokerage highlighting that ‘Jio [is expected to report] increased ARPU and subscribers while the Retail segment EBITDA margins [are] to sustain on a growing topline.’ Reliance Retail is expected to maintain its gradual recovery, contributing positively to consolidated EBITDA during the quarter.
The upstream oil and gas segment is expected to remain a drag on RIL’s overall performance. Lower crude oil realisations during the quarter are likely to weigh on upstream earnings. Brokerage reports flag that softer crude prices and realisation pressures are expected to limit the contribution from the upstream segment on a year-on-year basis.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
Find the best of Al News in one place, specially curated for you every weekend.
Stay on top of the latest tech trends and biggest startup news.
