NTPC's fourth quarter profit after tax is seen falling 21.2 percent year-on-year to Rs 2,437 crore, according to a CNBC-TV18 poll. Technically, results are not comparable to same quarter last year because in Q4FY14, there was an accrual of Rs 1,100 crore of prior period revenues.
Total income is expected to decline 8.4 percent to Rs 19,182 crore against Rs 20,938 crore during the same period. Operating profit of the state-run power generation company may increase 3 percent year-on-year to Rs 4,573 crore and margin may expand 260 basis points to 23.8 percent in the quarter gone by.
Analysts expect weak earnings during the quarter. Decline in earnings may be reflective of lower effective return on revised Central Electricity Regulatory Commission regulations.
Revenues may be modestly lower despite 10 percent Y-o-Y increase in regulated equity due to decline in quarterly incentives by around Rs 700 crore under the new tariff norms and lower generation (down 2 percent) during the quarter.
Analysts expect 100 basis points Y-o-Y decline due to new tariff norms and expect PBT & PAT to decline due to increase in depreciation & interest expenses.
Key factors to watch out for
Plant load factor (PLF) for coal-based projects and generation loss
Core return on equity and incentives
More clarity on actual impact of the new CERC regulations on core profit
Final order of Delhi High Court on new tariff regulations for FY14-19
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