NTPC Q3 net seen down 25% to Rs 2304 cr, generation may be flat

State-run power generation company NTPC's third quarter earnings are expected to be subdued with profit falling 25 percent year-on-year to Rs 2,304 crore due to higher tax expenses and lower other income.

Revenue is seen rising 1 percent to Rs 19,055 crore in quarter ended December 2015 compared to Rs 18,858 crore in same quarter last fiscal, according to analysts polled by CNBC-TV18.

Operating profit (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) may fall 1 percent year-on-year to Rs 4,608 crore and margin may shrink 70 basis points to 24 percent in quarter gone by.

Margin may be aided by lower fuel prices but lower fuel prices may offset decline in revenue.

Analysts see limited contribution from Koldam hydro plant and lower non-operating income due to lower incentives.

They expect average plant load factor at around 78-79 percent for the quarter against 81 percent in year-ago period. Power generation may remain flat on yearly basis at 61.9 billion units and gas based generation may de-grow by 9 percent to 2.7 billion units while coal based generation is expected at around 59.3 billion units.

Key factors to watch out for would be higher tax & lower other income, PLF for coal-based projects & generation loss, core return on equity & incentives, clarity on tariff regulations, average tariff per unit and fuel cost & tax.