NTPC Q4 PAT seen down 11% at Rs 2,484 cr

Country's largest power generation company NTPC is expected to report a profit after tax of Rs 2,484 crore for the fourth quarter of FY12, down 11% as compared to Rs 2,782 crore in a year ago period, according to CNBC-TV18 poll.

EBITDA is likely to go down by 12% to Rs 3,768 crore in the January-March quarter of 2012 versus Rs 4,279 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal.

Operating profit margin too is seen falling at 22.19% versus 26.78% year-on-year.

However, total income is seen going up by 6% to Rs 16,980 crore from Rs 15,979 crore year-on-year.

Q4FY12 Expectations

Improvement in generation expected on 2300MW of additional capacity

Expect PAT to decline despite capacity additions as fuel shortage impacted fixed cost recovery
**Current total capacities stand at 32722MW
**Average plant load factor (PLF) in Q4FY12 at 85%; coal based facilities saw a PLF of 88%; gas based facilities saw an average PLF of 67%

One key thing to watch out for –

So far the company has been booking revenues at full tax rate

However, this has changed to minimum alternate tax (MAT) rate for the full FY12, the revenues will have to be revised downwards for Q4FY12

Also watch out for –

Working capital deterioration
** Debtor days deteriorated to 77 days in Q3FY12 from 66 days in Q2FY12
**Also watch for SEBs’ ability to off-take power as fuel costs continue to increase