Shree Cement Q3 net likely to jump 3.8 times

Shree Cement's profit after tax is expected to show a growth of 3.8 times to Rs 105.5 crore in the third quarter of FY12 as against Rs 27.5 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal.

Revenue is seen going up by 58% to Rs 1,233 crore from Rs 779.6 crore year-on-year.

EBITDA is likely to be doubled to Rs 341.7 crore in the quarter ended December FY12 versus Rs 157.6 crore in a year ago quarter.

EBITDA is expected to be at 27.7% versus 20.2% year-on-year and 23.4% quarter-on-quarter.

Alert: Watch out for tax reversal, which was the case in Q2FY12

On quarter-on-quarter basis, revenue is seen going up by 44.3% and EBITDA up by 70.5%. PAT during the same period is likely to jump 2.74 times.

Factors to watch:             

-Expect 3QFY12 cement and clinker volume of 3mt, which will be up 14.6% YoY and 21% QoQ

-Expect merchant power sale at 485 million units at around INR 4.25/unit versus 14 million at INR 5 in 2QFY12 and 74 million at INR 4.55 in 3QFY11

-Better cement realizations and higher merchant power volumes will drive up revenue and EBITDA margins

EBITD-A margins will be aided by the use of pet coke which has been on a downward trend and which is cheaper versus coke

-Higher depreciation and interest will restrict adjusted PAT but need to watch out for the tax reversals including MAT credit