Apple’s US shift opens $14-billion iPhone opportunity for Indian factories in Q1: Analysts

Apple plans to reroute a significant portion of India-made iPhones—previously bound for European countries, the UK, Turkey, and Japan—to the US in the June quarter

As Apple targets sourcing most of its iPhones for the U.S. market from Indian factories in the June quarter, Foxconn and Tata Electronics factories in India are well-equipped to meet demand valued between $12 and $14 billion, analysts told Moneycontrol.

They further estimate that if this pace continues beyond the June quarter, iPhone production in India could reach nearly $40 billion by value in FY26, with approximately 80% of that output likely headed to the U.S. market.

“Over 11 million iPhones were sold in the April-June quarter of 2024 with an average selling price (ASP) of $1,100, which means the value is $12.1 billion. While this remains Apple’s weakest quarter typically, the demand in terms of value will be higher than $12 billion,” an analyst told Moneycontrol on the condition of anonymity.

With $40 billion worth of production, Apple would be able to meet 80 percent of its demand in the US and 100 percent of local demand, which is growing every quarter. "The April-June quarter is also on track to be a bumper quarter for Apple in India," another analyst said on the condition of anonymity.

Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company expects the majority of iPhones sold in the US during the June quarter to be sourced from India while almost all iPads, MacBooks, Apple Watches, and AirPods sold in the US will be made in Vietnam.

Apple plans to reroute a significant portion of India-made iPhones—previously bound for European countries, the UK, Turkey, and Japan—to the US in the June quarter. According to industry officials and analysts, Apple is accelerating local manufacturing to cushion the impact of rising US tariffs.

According to estimates by analysts and industry experts, Apple will need to increase its total iPhone production value in India from the current $22 billion to meet its goals. This involves nearly doubling exports from $17.5 billion to between $32 and $35 billion, while the domestic market is projected to account for approximately $5 to $8 billion.

Apple manufactured approximately 40–45 million iPhones in India in 2024, accounting for 18–20 percent of its global output. Of this, around 14–15 million were exported to the US, 13 million to other international markets, and about 12 million were sole in the Indian market.

According to industry officials, Apple has been shipping India-made iPhones to countries like the Netherlands, Italy, the Czech Republic, Japan, Turkey, the UK, and the UAE. “Apple will likely reroute India-made iPhones meant for these markets to the US for the June quarter by tweaking the models,” a source said.

Apple’s partners are already expanding the capacities of their Indian factories and setting up new units.

Tata Electronics’ new iPhone factory in Hosur has begun operations and is assembling older-generation iPhones. Foxconn’s new Bengaluru facility, the second-largest facility outside China, is being set up with an investment of $2.8 billion and will soon start operations for iPhone production. It will play a key role in ramping up exports from India.

According to ICEA data, iPhones with a freight on board (FOB) value of Rs 48,000 crore ($480 million) were exported in the March quarter, compared to Rs 28,500 crore ($285 million) in the same quarter the previous year.

In general, the FOB price represents the cost of producing and shipping the iPhone until it’s ready for export, while the final retail price, which can be several times higher, reflects the cost to the end consumer.

For example, the FOB price for an iPhone (including assembly and components) might be around $300–$500, depending on the model and region. However, the final retail price can range from $700 to $1,500, depending on the model and market, accounting for a markup of 2-3 times the FOB price.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, 98% of Apple’s iPhone exports from India in March were destined for the U.S., totalling about 3.1 million units, a sharp rise from February’s 84%. Most of the March production was handled by Foxconn.