Global commodity giant BHP says India's infra and manufacturing push will drive global demand

India is likely to make up for 'a proportion of China’s anticipated steel production decline', BHP in its outlook said.

Mining major BHP Group has cited Indian economy's 'continued strength' as a key support for global commodity demand, along with China's 'calibrated stimulus', at a time when the world's growth outlook has been dampened by trade policy shifts.

In its annual economic and commodity outlook released on August 19, the BHP Group said India's infrastructure spending and manufacturing focus are expected to drive the demand for metals very sharply, and may even offset the weakness in Europe and other advanced Asian economies.

The raw materials used in manufacturing steel will see adjustments led by India's domestic capacity addition, which has been a priority for PM Modi. BHP said India's commodity consumption has been largely 'domestically-focused', and the nation consumes 'almost all steel' produced domestically, making it a key player in the global demand outlook. In fact, India is likely to make up for 'a proportion of China’s anticipated steel production decline', BHP in its outlook said, projecting a quadrupling of New Delhi's annual steel demand in the next 25 years compared to 2020.

"India, along with other parts of developing Asia, are in the early stages of a long structural growth cycle, partly underpinned by regional trade integration. A young and growing population, rapid urbanisation, and rising incomes are expected to drive sustained demand for steel, copper, and other industrial commodities for decades to come," BHP Group said. It cited large scope for India-led demand growth going forward, as the nation's per capita copper demand is only 1/8th that of China and other advanced economies.

BHP cited IEA's report which said the installed data centre capacity could grow by 2.3x by 2030.

"Benchmarks vary drastically even out to 2030, with various forecasters projecting power demand from data centres to grow by as much as one to four times today’s levels. Our estimate is closer to the middle part of that range, but if the high end is correct, that could mean adding slightly less than India’s annual power consumption in data centres over the next five years," BHP added.

For iron ore, BHP's outlook report said India could emerge as a net importer very soon. "We also expect India, which reliably exported an average of ~30 MT per annum in the past nine years to the seaborne market, to increasingly become an opportunistic importer..." India has a strong pipeline of blast furnaces that are expected come online going ahead, with a Centre targetting to install 300 MTPA of steel capacity by 2030.

Amid trade disruptions, India has shown the 'strongest demand growth' for Potash in the first five months of 2025 calendar year, with imports growing by over 20 percent on year.

By 2028, India is expected to overtake Germany as the third-largest economy in the world, as per IMF estimates.